Fall flight deals before Labor Day? School keeps starting earlier, and airlines are taking notice

Summer isn't over just yet: As much of the country scorches under stifling heat waves, two weeks still remain until Labor Day weekend marks the unofficial end of summer. But for some airlines, the peak domestic summer travel season is already winding down. In some pockets of the country, summer might as well have ended a few weeks ago.

All of that could be good news for travelers with a little flexibility in their schedules. Opportunities abound to snag a good fare or award redemption — even on a last-minute trip.

All of this would seem to defy conventional wisdom. Doesn't the peak summer travel season run through all of August? Isn't booking last-minute flights a surefire way to overspend?

Traditionally, yes.

In recent years, however, airlines have adjusted to a trend millions of parents (and students) already knew about: School starts a lot earlier in many parts of the country.

Peak summer travel season shifts earlier

The shift of "back to school" has become so widespread that airline executives have taken notice. They have started rethinking conventional wisdom about prime vacation season.

"In our markets, a third of schools were back in session the second week of August. That's double what it was prepandemic," Southwest Airlines Chief Commercial Officer Ryan Green told financial analysts on an earnings call last October. He noted how the changes meant more empty seats during the summer's final weeks.

Read more: Southwest Rapid Rewards: Complete guide to earning, redeeming and maximizing points

"Anyone that has kids, you usually don't travel the week before your kids go back to school," Green pointed out. "So, that kind of wipes all of August out for a third of our markets."

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Airlines adjust

Southwest deployed big changes this summer, partly reflecting the new thinking on vacation.

The airline is flying roughly 11% fewer seats from its base at Houston's William P. Hobby Airport (HOU) this month compared to July, according to data from aviation analytics firm Cirium.

In comparison, the airline's seats out of Hobby actually increased from July to August last year. In 2019, the last prepandemic year, seats were about even across the two months.

It's a similar story for Southwest in Denver, where the airline's total number of seats in August will be down 11% from July, per Cirium. Southwest similarly reduced the number of seats in August compared to July by at least 8% departing from Chicago, Dallas and St. Louis.

Southwest offers a stark example of this trend, but it's far from alone.

Last month, Delta Air Lines executives pointed to shifting school calendars as one reason that August travel would be less profitable for the carrier than in past years.

"As a matter of fact, here, I believe, schools in Georgia go back the first week of August now," Delta President Glen Hauenstein noted on a recent conference call. "As we think about how we plan that now, we're incorporating that into our capacity plans moving forward."

The upshot of these shifts: Bigger crowds poured into airports in late May, June and July this year — a roughly 10-week stretch that saw each of the 10 busiest days ever at Transportation Security Administration checkpoints. This means there's a front-loaded emphasis on summer for airlines, one industry executive told Wall Street last month.

"As more leisure trips take place earlier, this has pushed June to become a strong peak month," Andrew Harrison, chief commercial officer at Alaska Airlines, said. In August, Alaska dropped its total seats out of San Francisco International Airport (SFO) by nearly 8% from July, per Cirium. Five years ago, the carrier grew its August seats by 8% over the prior month.

These school schedule-fueled changes come on top of sweeping route network adjustments airlines have recently made. They have been adjusting to account for stiff competition on many routes, which has cut into earnings for many carriers.

How to plan for these changing patterns

So what does all this mean for travelers?

Don't discount a late-summer bargain

For starters, if your plans aren't tied to the school calendar or you have the flexibility for a weekend trip during the early part of the academic year, you may still be able to land a flight deal for August — even though we're halfway through the month — or early September.

Lower demand typically translates to lower prices — a trend that's unlikely to reverse meaningfully in the immediate future even as airlines shift capacity, said Hayley Berg, lead economist at booking app Hopper.

There are late-summer deals, at least on some routes, "partly because prices [were] already so low," Berg said. She pointed to stiff competition among airlines all summer.

Consider redeeming points for hotels, not flights

There are similar deals for those redeeming points or miles. Many airlines have shifted to dynamic award pricing that fluctuates with demand, similar to cash prices. When the cash prices are down, the award pricing often is more approachable, too.

If you do want to book an end-of-summer trip, though, you might consider booking your flight with cash and using points for a hotel — particularly if you have a credit card that offers transfers to a program like World of Hyatt, a TPG favorite for good-value hotel redemptions. As TPG has reported, hotel prices have remained higher even as airfare has dropped.

Read more: Guide to transferring points and miles to airlines and hotels

Shoulder season shifts earlier, too

Can't squeeze in a last-minute summer trip?

That's OK: Fares should stay low well into the fall, Berg said.

"That's just the regular seasonal pattern," Berg said. "The difference is, prices are already so low now that discounting from that low will mean really good deals."

The earlier start of the school year has effectively moved up the start of the traditional discount-laden autumn "shoulder season," between the peak summer and holiday rushes. These days, it starts much earlier in August.

Frontier Airlines did say last week that it's seeing September fares rising. Numerous airlines have referenced a mid-August "inflection point" for ticket prices amid major network shifts meant to improve carriers' pricing power. But so far, Hopper says it's seeing September fares trending lower than last year.

Be mindful of hurricane season

If you book an August or early September trip to a destination where hurricanes are possible, consider immediately purchasing a travel insurance plan or using a travel credit card that offers insurance.

Think ahead for summer 2025

And finally, keep these evolving travel habits in mind as you think ahead to 2025 summer bookings. These days, the later in the summer you can travel, the more likely you are to find a deal, Berg said.

"That peak used to be in mid-to-late June, where prices hit their max," she said. "Now, it's happening more like end of May, early June."

1 big exception

Throw out everything we just told you when it comes to travel in Europe.

In recent years, airlines have noted the virtual opposite is true: The "peak" season now extends well beyond the hot summer months, as Delta executives noted last month.

It now starts a lot earlier, too — well before the hot summer months, TPG reported last winter.

You're certain to find cooler, more comfortable and less crowded conditions in early spring or autumn. However, you're now also likely to find plenty of Americans on vacation (particularly in southern Europe) amid a pandemic-fueled craving for overseas travel that's yet to wane.

I'll report back after visiting Italy next month — a week after Labor Day.

Related reading:

• When is the best time to book flights for the cheapest airfare?
• The best airline credit cards
• What exactly are airline miles, anyway?
• 6 real-life strategies you can use when your flight is canceled or delayed
• Maximize your airfare: The best credit cards for booking flights
• The best credit cards to reach elite status
• What are points and miles worth? TPG's monthly valuations