News

The tiny nation with a rapidly growing airline route map

Zach GriffSenior reporter
Zach Griff is a senior reporter at TPG. He writes travel and product reviews, deep dives into loyalty programs, news about the airline industry and more.

December 15, 2020 • 7 min read

The cards we feature here are from partners who compensate us when you are approved through our site, and this may impact how or where these products appear. We don't cover all available credit cards, but our analysis, reviews, and opinions are entirely from our editorial team. Terms apply to the offers listed on this page. Please view our advertising policy and product review methodology for more information.

Quick summary

Israel's aviation sector, heavily impacted by the pandemic, is experiencing renewed optimism due to recent normalization agreements with several regional countries.
New air routes have opened between Israel and the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Sudan and Morocco, expanding travel and trade opportunities.
Dubai has quickly become the busiest international route from Tel Aviv, though future demand may fluctuate due to seasonal and pandemic-related factors.
Airlines are forming new partnerships, including reciprocal frequent flyer agreements and coordinated schedules, to enhance connectivity.

What to consider

Travel demand remains uncertain as these are entirely new markets without historical data to predict trends.
Visa processes and pandemic restrictions still pose challenges for travelers and airlines alike.
Seasonal factors, such as extreme summer heat in Dubai, may significantly reduce leisure travel demand.

What you'll miss from the article

Insights into how geopolitical changes are reshaping Israel's aviation landscape and the specific challenges airlines face as they enter new markets.

Generated by AI with support from our editorial team.

Around the world, the pandemic has caused most air traffic to come to an abrupt halt.

When the coronavirus began spreading rapidly in March and April, some airlines completely stopped operating, while others pulled back from secondary markets, even leaving some cities with no commercial service.

One tiny country, however, is seeing a reversal in fortune. Israel, nestled between the Mediterranean Sea and its Arab neighbors, is in the midst of a geopolitical transformation.

While Israel’s aviation market remains especially hard hit by the COVID crisis, there have been some surprising signs of hope that have emerged on the geopolitical front.

Despite the pandemic, Israel has signed peace treaties with four countries in the region since August, opening up previously uncharted territories for airlines to serve.

For Israeli aviation, and its flag carrier El Al, these normalization deals are a welcome development during what's easily the worst crisis to hit worldwide aviation in decades and one that's delivered repeated bad news to most carriers in 2020.

"Establishing peace with our neighbors allows us to perform better than we used to, thanks to a host of new markets that will evolve as we recover from the pandemic," Michael Strassburger, El Al's chief commercial officer, told TPG in an exclusive interview.

Stay up-to-date on airline and aviation news by signing up for our brand-new aviation newsletter.

It begins with Dubai

Dubai at sunrise (Photo by Zach Griff/The Points Guy)

It all started in mid-August with news of a landmark deal between Israel and the United Arab Emirates to establish diplomatic relations. Since the announcement, politicians and executives have inked business deals and trade treaties, and cultural exchanges have been set up.

But nowhere is the appetite for exploration more apparent than in the explosive growth on the air corridors between the two countries.

There are 390 flights scheduled between Tel Aviv and Dubai for January 2021, making it the busiest international route from Israel, according to schedule data published by Cirium. (This figure doesn't include charter flights, of which there are at least two scheduled in each direction per day.)

On Sunday, El Al started commercial flights between the two countries, in a historic move that Strassburger dubbed as "very exciting since it holds so many opportunities for so many people, as well as our company."

For now, the growth has been limited to the Gulf city of Dubai. That's because the hub is open to tourists who present a negative COVID test taken within 96 hours of departure.

As for flights to Abu Dhabi, they're coming, promised Strassburger, who cited the strict 14-day quarantine as a big deterrent for tourists looking to explore the UAE capital.

Other countries quickly followed suit

Dubai is just the first of the rapidly growing number of dots on the route map connecting Tel Aviv.

In September, Israel normalized relations with Bahrain, and one month later announced a similar move with Sudan. While demand for flights to Manama and Khartoum isn't yet clear, according to Strassburger, the airline and its competitors plan to begin flights as soon as commercially feasible.

As for the significance of opening these new air markets, Elad Strohmayer, spokesperson and diplomat for the Israeli Embassy in Washington, told TPG "it's about the budding people-to-people relations, as well as expanding tourism, trade and commerce between countries, which will ultimately enhance the interpersonal connections."

It's not just about the new routes, though. Regional carriers are also beginning to explore several trade opportunities. El Al has already signed a memorandum of understanding with both Etihad and Gulf Air, "a historic move for all parties involved," said Strassburger. Flyers can expect reciprocal frequent flyer agreements and cross-airline perks, while the carriers will work to coordinate schedules and offer improved connectivity.

Morocco is poised to outperform Dubai

While Dubai might be the busiest market from Israel at the outset of 2021, don't expect it to hold that title for long, especially once pandemic-era restrictions ease and flights to traditional destinations pick up.

However, the ranking may not revert to the 2019 pecking order, when flights to Moscow and Istanbul were two of the top routes from Tel Aviv, according to Cirium data.

That's because, on Dec. 10, Israel and Morocco agreed to normalize ties. That's huge for El Al and its competitors, as "Casablanca is probably the largest unserved market from Tel Aviv, roughly in line with Atlanta and Philadelphia from the U.S.," said Strassburger.

El Al is excited about flying to Morocco (Photo by Zach Griff/The Points Guy)

With the news so hot off the presses, no single airline has yet unveiled a schedule for flights between the two countries. But Strassburger has high hopes, especially for Israeli citizens looking to travel to the North African nation. "For many Israelis, Morocco is historical. Every Israeli I know that went to Morocco said it’s a beautiful destination and a must-see tour," he said.

It's not all rosy, though

While the future looks promising for Israeli aviation, there are many turbulent times ahead.

For one, take a look at the coronavirus-related downturn in passenger traffic at Tel Aviv's Ben Gurion Airport. In November, international traffic dropped 92% year-over-year. That number will improve slightly by December — to down only 85% — with the change overwhelmingly tied to the rapid expansion on the Dubai routes. (Most other top destinations from Israel, including the U.S., Europe and Southeast Asia, remain off-limits to foreigners.)

Additionally, El Al and its competitors are flooding the market with new routes now, but they're unsure if the short-term successes will become long-term revenue drivers. For instance, several airlines just recently flooded the market to the Seychelles, since it's open to Israeli tourists sans quarantine upon return to the state. But, will that last?

Strassburger cautioned that "we really don’t yet know the size of the market to predict accurate demand. These are completely new markets, not just for El Al, but for everyone. It's like starting from scratch without any data."

Plus, come the summer, when the temperatures in the Dubai desert exceed 100 degrees, tourism demand to Dubai typically falls off a cliff. "There’s no chance this level of demand can sustain itself come summer," he said. Hopefully, "some of the business opportunities remain over the summer, but the leisure volume ... will be drastically reduced."

And then, there's the issue of visas. While normalization makes for splashy headlines, the actual process of establishing ties is much more nuanced. One of Strassburger's concerns is the visa process, which has already caused some Israelis to be held up in Dubai before intervention from the foreign ministry.

These issues notwithstanding, the Middle East shake-up is big news for Israel, UAE, Morocco and Sudan —and the airlines that fly from those countries.

"We are thinking and hoping for many other opportunities throughout the region that will open for our company and for the competitors," Strassburger concluded.

Great offers from our partners

See current offers Find your best card with CardMatch™

TPG featured card

American Express® Gold Card

TPG editor's rating

at American Express's secure site.
Terms & restrictions apply. See rates & fees.

Rewards rate

Rewards rate
Rate	Category
4X	Earn 4X Membership Rewards® points per dollar spent on purchases at restaurants worldwide, on up to $50,000 in purchases per calendar year, then 1X points for the rest of the year.
4X	Earn 4X Membership Rewards® points per dollar spent at US supermarkets, on up to $25,000 in purchases per calendar year, then 1X points for the rest of the year.
5X	Earn 5X Membership Rewards® points on prepaid hotel stays booked through AmexTravel.com or the Amex Travel App™.
3X	Earn 3X Membership Rewards® points on flights booked through AmexTravel.com, the Amex Travel App™, or purchased directly from airlines.
2X	Earn 2X Membership Rewards® points on prepaid car rentals booked through AmexTravel.com or the Amex Travel App™ and cruises booked and paid through AmexTravel.com.
1X	Earn 1X Membership Rewards® point per dollar spent on all other eligible purchases.

Intro offer

As High As 100,000 points. Find Out Your Offer.

Annual fee

$325

Regular APR

See Pay Over Time APR

Recommended credit

Excellent to Good

Pros + cons

Pros

Valuable dining and food-related credits
Flexible rewards with airline and hotel transfer partners
Multiple travel and purchase protections
No foreign transaction fees
Access to Amex Offers for additional savings (enrollment required)

Cons

Not as useful for those living outside the U.S.
Some may have trouble using Uber and other dining credits

More details

You may be eligible for as high as 100,000 Membership Rewards® Points after you spend $8,000 in eligible purchases on your new Card in your first 6 months of Card Membership. Welcome offers vary and you may not be eligible for an offer. Apply to know if you’re approved and find out your exact welcome offer amount – all with no credit score impact. If you’re approved and choose to accept the Card, your score may be impacted.
Earn 4X Membership Rewards® points per dollar spent on purchases at restaurants worldwide, on up to $50,000 in purchases per calendar year, then 1X points for the rest of the year.
Earn 4X Membership Rewards® points per dollar spent at US supermarkets, on up to $25,000 in purchases per calendar year, then 1X points for the rest of the year.
Earn 5X Membership Rewards® points on prepaid hotel stays booked through AmexTravel.com or the Amex Travel App™.
Earn 3X Membership Rewards® points on flights booked through AmexTravel.com, the Amex Travel App™, or purchased directly from airlines.
Earn 2X Membership Rewards® points on prepaid car rentals booked through AmexTravel.com or the Amex Travel App™ and cruises booked and paid through AmexTravel.com.
Earn 1X Membership Rewards® point per dollar spent on all other eligible purchases.
Pay It® lets you tap in the American Express® App to quickly pay for small purchase amounts throughout the month and still earn rewards the way you usually do. Plan It® gives you the option to split up big purchases into equal monthly payments with a fixed fee. You’ll know upfront exactly how much you’ll pay.
$120 Dining Credit: Earn up to a total of $10 in statement credits monthly when you pay with the Gold Card at Grubhub (including Seamless), Buffalo Wild Wings, Five Guys, The Cheesecake Factory, and Wonder. This can be an annual savings of up to $120. Enrollment required.
$100 Resy Credit: Get up to $100 in statement credits each calendar year at over 10,000 qualifying U.S. Resy restaurants after you pay for eligible purchases with the American Express® Gold Card. That’s up to $50 in statement credits semi-annually. Enrollment required.
$84 Dunkin' Credit: Earn up to $7 in monthly statement credits after you pay with the American Express® Gold Card at U.S. Dunkin’ locations. Enrollment required.
$120 Uber Cash on Gold: Enjoy up to $120 in Uber Cash annually with your Gold Card. Just add your Card to your Uber account and you'll get $10 in Uber Cash each month to use on orders and rides in the U.S. when you select an Amex Card for your transaction.
Enjoy complimentary Hertz Five Star® Status benefits like skipping the counter at select locations, adding an additional driver at no additional cost*, and vehicle upgrades**. Benefit enrollment and Hertz Gold+ registration are required. *Additional drivers must meet standard rental qualifications and must be a spouse or domestic partner to qualify as complimentary. Other additional drivers subject to fees. **Benefits are subject to availability and vary by location. Additional Hertz program Terms and Conditions including age restrictions apply.
Book two nights or more with The Hotel Collection through AmexTravel.com or the Amex Travel App™ and receive a $100* credit towards eligible charges at over 1,400 upscale hotels worldwide. *Eligible charges vary by property.
Book your travel through the Amex Travel App™ with added peace of mind – backed by American Express® service and support. Only for American Express® Card Members.
Whenever you need us, we're here. Our Member Services team will ensure you are taken care of. From lost Card replacement to statement questions, we are available to help 24/7.
No Foreign Transaction Fees.
Annual Fee is $325.
Terms Apply.