Our data analysis of Marriott points and certificates
by Nick Ewen, Senior editorial director
Last month, we saw a notable increase in award prices across a wide swath of Marriott Bonvoy properties. And that got us wondering — does that mean your Marriott points are now less valuable? Or was this adjustment simply keeping up with increasing paid rates? And what does this mean for your Marriott free night certificates?
To answer these questions, we rebooted our 2022 analysis from when Marriott first launched dynamic award pricing, compiling nearly 15,000 data points at 51 properties.
Unfortunately, two clear trends emerged from our analysis. Overall, your Marriott points are less valuable today than they were in 2022 — dropping from 0.85 cents apiece to just 0.7 cents.
Perhaps more importantly, our data shows that those valuable free night rewards that come with select Marriott credit cards may now be significantly harder to use. Availability at (or below) the given thresholds dropped from 62.42% in 2022 to just 21.7% in 2025.
That’s why we’re calling on Marriott to update the caps on these certificates to more accurately reflect current award pricing.
In the meantime, what can you do?
In short, be sure you’re calculating a redemption value whenever you’re thinking about using your Marriott Bonvoy points or redeeming a free night certificate. You want to make sure you’re getting decent value for your points and these rewards (like I did last fall at a Taylor Swift concert).
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Photo Credit: THE RITZ-CARLTON, HALF MOON BAY/MARRIOTT INTERNATIONAL.
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