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The delta variant hasn't made a dent in U.S. travel demand, airlines say

July 23, 2021
5 min read
A man, woman, and young child, all wearing masks, wheel luggage through an airport.
The delta variant hasn't made a dent in U.S. travel demand, airlines say
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The delta variant hasn't been a problem for Delta Air Lines. Nor any other U.S. carrier. At least, not yet.

Travel demand in the U.S. has not been blunted by the rapidly spreading delta variant, the major U.S. airlines have all said, with current travel numbers and future bookings continuing to trend upward.

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The resilience in travel demand comes despite a sharp rise in COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths in the U.S. in recent weeks, although confirmed case levels are still well below the highs of this winter. The variant makes up 83% of current U.S. cases, the CDC said.

The delta variant has been observed to be about 50%-60% more contagious than the alpha variant that drove the pandemic this winter, which was, in turn, 50% more contagious than the original strain.

However, all of the vaccines approved in the U.S. appear to be effective at protecting against the delta variant, preventing serious illness, hospitalization, and death, although there are some indications that they may be less effective at preventing breakthrough infections. Still, more than 97% of people hospitalized with COVID-19 last week were unvaccinated, CDC director Dr. Rochelle Walensky said, and 99.5% of COVID deaths in the U.S. were among unvaccinated people, U.S. Surgeon General Dr. Vivek Murthy said.

The evident efficacy of the vaccines has meant that U.S. travelers are largely remaining confident, airline CEOs said this week.

“We haven’t seen any impact at all on bookings, which continue to get stronger week after week,” United CEO Scott Kirby said during the company's second-quarter earnings call this week. “We think the most likely outcome is that the continued recovery in demand continues unabated.”

At United's competitors, leadership generally agreed.

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"Demand for our product remains strong and we're very encouraged by the trends we're seeing in the revenue environment," American Airlines president Robert Isom said on a conference call Thursday. "The recovery is happening."

Delta CEO Ed Bastian expressed similar sentiments last week.

"We know our customers are largely vaccinated,” Bastian said. “Our people are largely vaccinated.”

More: 6 things we learned about Delta this week during its earnings call

“The vaccines work and they’re giving people the ability to get back to their lives,” he added. “So no, we’re not anticipating any changes at this time.”

"We're looking at the customer sentiment, but we're also certainly looking at current bookings, as well as forward bookings," Southwest chief operating officer Mike Van de Ven said in response to a question from TPG. "We are just not seeing at this point any issue or any impact from the Delta variant."

While this is certainly good news for airlines and the broader travel industry, which has been among those hit hardest during the pandemic, it raises an obvious question: why are people not avoiding travel, which is largely perceived as a high-risk activity, despite the rise of the variant, even among vaccinated people?

According to Dr. Anthony Santella, professor of health administration and policy at the University of New Haven, a large part of it comes down to messaging.

"Part of it is messaging from the federal government," he said. "People hear that and they're like, well, the 'experts' are telling us that if we're vaccinated, we don't need to abide by these by these measures anymore. And the unvaccinated or partially vaccinated person sees that as kind of their escape."

Dr. Santella noted that while the vaccines are largely effective, they're not a "magic shield," and believes that some pandemic mitigation measures may come back into place this fall.

"If I, as a fully vaccinated person was going to travel, I would continue to follow the kind of public health mitigation strategies, including wearing a mask when indoors," he said. "Unless I'm eating, I'm wearing a mask."

More: Business travel is surging back sooner than expected, but there’s still some bad news for airlines

A self-proclaimed "huge traveler" — Dr. Santella said he's visited between 25 and 30 countries and has filled passports before — he noted that he made the personal decision to avoid traveling during the pandemic.

Still, according to all the data, other travelers are ready to get back into the world, variant or not.

On Sunday, 2,227,704 people traveled by air in the U.S., 81% of the number that traveled on the same day in 2019. It was the first time that more than 2.2 million travelers took to the skies since March 2020.

Featured image by MediaNews Group via Getty Images
Editorial disclaimer: Opinions expressed here are the author’s alone, not those of any bank, credit card issuer, airline or hotel chain, and have not been reviewed, approved or otherwise endorsed by any of these entities.

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TPG featured card

Best luxury travel rewards card
TPG Editor‘s Rating
Card Rating is based on the opinion of TPG‘s editors and is not influenced by the card issuer.
4 / 5
Go to review

Rewards

5X points
5XEarn 5X Membership Rewards® Points for flights booked directly with airlines or with American Express Travel up to $500,000 on these purchases per calendar year.
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Intro offer

Earn 80,000 Points
Earn 80,000 Membership Rewards® Points after you spend $6,000 on purchases on the Card in your first 6 months of Card Membership.

Annual Fee

$695

Recommended Credit

670-850
Excellent/Good
Credit ranges are a variation of FICO© Score 8, one of many types of credit scores lenders may use when considering your credit card application.

Why We Chose It

Sometimes it's worth a large investment to reap the benefits of a great credit card. That's exactly the case with the Amex Platinum card. In exchange for the annual fee, you'll unlock access to the Amex Membership Rewards program that let you access airline and hotel transfer partners, along with new lifestyle and travel credits. This card is also incredibly rewarding for travel purchases, helping you rack up a ton of Membership Rewards points for your next award trip.

Pros

  • The current welcome offer on this card is quite lucrative. TPG values it at $1,600.
  • This card comes with a long list of benefits, including access to Centurion Lounges, complimentary elite status with Hilton and Marriott, at least $500 in assorted annual statement credits and so much more. (Enrollment required for select benefits.)
  • The Amex Platinum comes with access to a premium concierge service that can help you with everything from booking hard-to-get reservations to finding destination guides to help you plan out your next getaway.

Cons

  • The high annual fee is only worth it if you’re taking full advantage of the card’s benefits. Seldom travelers may not get enough value to warrant the cost.
  • Outside of the current welcome bonus, you’re only earning higher rewards on specific airfare and hotel purchases, so it’s not a great card for other spending categories.
  • The annual airline fee statement credit can be complicated to take advantage of compared to the broader travel credits offered by competing premium cards.
  • Earn 80,000 Membership Rewards® Points after you spend $6,000 on purchases on the Card in your first 6 months of Card Membership.
  • Earn 5X Membership Rewards® Points for flights booked directly with airlines or with American Express Travel up to $500,000 on these purchases per calendar year and earn 5X Membership Rewards® Points on prepaid hotels booked with American Express Travel.
  • $200 Hotel Credit: Get $200 back in statement credits each year on prepaid Fine Hotels + Resorts® or The Hotel Collection bookings with American Express Travel when you pay with your Platinum Card®.
  • $240 Digital Entertainment Credit: Get up to $20 in statement credits each month when you pay for eligible purchases with the Platinum Card® at your choice of one or more of the following providers: Peacock, Audible, SiriusXM, The New York Times, and other participating providers. Enrollment required.
  • $155 Walmart+ Credit: Cover the cost of a $12.95 monthly Walmart+ membership with a statement credit after you pay for Walmart+ each month with your Platinum Card. Cost includes $12.95 plus applicable local sales tax.
  • American Express has expanded The Centurion® Network to include 40+ Centurion Lounge and Studio locations worldwide. Now there are even more places your Platinum Card® can get you complimentary entry and exclusive perks.
  • $200 Airline Fee Credit: Select one qualifying airline and then receive up to $200 in statement credits per calendar year when incidental fees are charged by the airline to your Card.
  • $200 Uber Cash: Enjoy Uber VIP status and up to $200 in Uber savings on rides or eats orders in the US annually. Uber Cash and Uber VIP status is available to Basic Card Member only.
  • $300 Equinox Credit: Get up to $300 back each year on an Equinox+ subscription, or any Equinox club memberships when you pay with your Platinum Card. Enrollment required. Learn more.
  • $189 CLEAR® Credit: Breeze through security with CLEAR® Plus at 45+ airports nationwide and get up to $189 back per year on your membership (subject to auto-renewal) when you use your Card.
  • $695 annual fee.
  • Terms Apply.
  • See Rates & Fees
Apply for The Platinum Card® from American Express
at American Express's secure site
Terms & restrictions apply. See rates & fees
Best luxury travel rewards card
TPG Editor‘s Rating
Card Rating is based on the opinion of TPG‘s editors and is not influenced by the card issuer.
4 / 5
Go to review

Rewards Rate

5XEarn 5X Membership Rewards® Points for flights booked directly with airlines or with American Express Travel up to $500,000 on these purchases per calendar year.
5XEarn 5X Membership Rewards® Points on prepaid hotels booked with American Express Travel.
  • Intro Offer
    Earn 80,000 Membership Rewards® Points after you spend $6,000 on purchases on the Card in your first 6 months of Card Membership.

    Earn 80,000 Points
  • Annual Fee

    $695
  • Recommended Credit
    Credit ranges are a variation of FICO© Score 8, one of many types of credit scores lenders may use when considering your credit card application.

    670-850
    Excellent/Good

Why We Chose It

Sometimes it's worth a large investment to reap the benefits of a great credit card. That's exactly the case with the Amex Platinum card. In exchange for the annual fee, you'll unlock access to the Amex Membership Rewards program that let you access airline and hotel transfer partners, along with new lifestyle and travel credits. This card is also incredibly rewarding for travel purchases, helping you rack up a ton of Membership Rewards points for your next award trip.

Pros

  • The current welcome offer on this card is quite lucrative. TPG values it at $1,600.
  • This card comes with a long list of benefits, including access to Centurion Lounges, complimentary elite status with Hilton and Marriott, at least $500 in assorted annual statement credits and so much more. (Enrollment required for select benefits.)
  • The Amex Platinum comes with access to a premium concierge service that can help you with everything from booking hard-to-get reservations to finding destination guides to help you plan out your next getaway.

Cons

  • The high annual fee is only worth it if you’re taking full advantage of the card’s benefits. Seldom travelers may not get enough value to warrant the cost.
  • Outside of the current welcome bonus, you’re only earning higher rewards on specific airfare and hotel purchases, so it’s not a great card for other spending categories.
  • The annual airline fee statement credit can be complicated to take advantage of compared to the broader travel credits offered by competing premium cards.
  • Earn 80,000 Membership Rewards® Points after you spend $6,000 on purchases on the Card in your first 6 months of Card Membership.
  • Earn 5X Membership Rewards® Points for flights booked directly with airlines or with American Express Travel up to $500,000 on these purchases per calendar year and earn 5X Membership Rewards® Points on prepaid hotels booked with American Express Travel.
  • $200 Hotel Credit: Get $200 back in statement credits each year on prepaid Fine Hotels + Resorts® or The Hotel Collection bookings with American Express Travel when you pay with your Platinum Card®.
  • $240 Digital Entertainment Credit: Get up to $20 in statement credits each month when you pay for eligible purchases with the Platinum Card® at your choice of one or more of the following providers: Peacock, Audible, SiriusXM, The New York Times, and other participating providers. Enrollment required.
  • $155 Walmart+ Credit: Cover the cost of a $12.95 monthly Walmart+ membership with a statement credit after you pay for Walmart+ each month with your Platinum Card. Cost includes $12.95 plus applicable local sales tax.
  • American Express has expanded The Centurion® Network to include 40+ Centurion Lounge and Studio locations worldwide. Now there are even more places your Platinum Card® can get you complimentary entry and exclusive perks.
  • $200 Airline Fee Credit: Select one qualifying airline and then receive up to $200 in statement credits per calendar year when incidental fees are charged by the airline to your Card.
  • $200 Uber Cash: Enjoy Uber VIP status and up to $200 in Uber savings on rides or eats orders in the US annually. Uber Cash and Uber VIP status is available to Basic Card Member only.
  • $300 Equinox Credit: Get up to $300 back each year on an Equinox+ subscription, or any Equinox club memberships when you pay with your Platinum Card. Enrollment required. Learn more.
  • $189 CLEAR® Credit: Breeze through security with CLEAR® Plus at 45+ airports nationwide and get up to $189 back per year on your membership (subject to auto-renewal) when you use your Card.
  • $695 annual fee.
  • Terms Apply.
  • See Rates & Fees