It's time to book your summer trips now — here’s why

We're already busy booking summer trips here at TPG. In fact, some of us have even begun booking trips for the fall, winter holidays and even early 2025.

Airfare prices are expected to accelerate this spring, though the averages aren't expected to hit the stratospheric levels they did in the past few years. TPG founder Brian Kelly is among the experts predicting 2024 will break records for travel, and summer demand will be high.

The travel website Hopper predicts airfare will come in around the same as last year. "Prices ... are in line with pre-pandemic prices, following a similar trajectory as 2019," a Hopper spokesperson said.

Last summer, airfare peaked at an average of $350 for domestic flights. That was down more than 10% from the $400 of summer 2022 but higher than the average price pre-pandemic.

This year so far according to Hopper, average airfare for summer travel is $325, but that could rise.

"If you see a fare you like, take it." Brian Sumers, editor of The Airline Observer, told TPG. He said, "Summer is typically the busiest time of the year for U.S. airlines, particularly between the middle of June and the end of July, when most children are off of school. It's even worse during holiday weekends. Airlines aren't trying to gouge anyone. It's simply a product of supply and demand. When more people want to fly, prices go up. If they didn't, flights would simply sell out months in advance."

Is it already too late to lock in summer plans and get the best deals? Nope.

Here's everything you need to know if you're thinking of traveling this summer.

Now is the time to book summer flights for the best deals

If you haven't finalized your summer flights yet, now is the time to get going — especially if you're looking to travel abroad.

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For domestic trips, you should at least begin to monitor prices for the destinations you'll be visiting.

"The sweet spot for summer travel is two to three months in advance of your departure date," Hayley Berg, Hopper's lead economist, told TPG. "There's no great urgency to book an August vacation right this second. However, it's important to start tracking prices."

For example, Hopper recommends booking in early April for a June trip. If you want to travel for the long Memorial Day weekend, you should book now through April 9.

However, international flights are a different story.

"Travelers should be booking typically three to five months in advance for international," Berg said.

Specifically, if you want to go to Australia or Asia this summer, Berg recommends booking as soon as possible. She adds that if you're looking at traveling to Europe or South America, you may have a few more weeks.

Hopper's Berg said, "Current domestic airfare for summer is averaging $325 per ticket, down 5% from last year and 2% from 2022. Airfare to Europe this summer is averaging just over $1,000 per ticket right now, down 12% from this time last year. Prices remain higher than in 2022 following the incredibly high demand for travel to Europe last summer."

Related: When is the best time to book flights for the cheapest airfare?

Keep in mind that some industry analysts are also now suggesting that travelers are booking big trips during longer booking windows.

"Across the board, travelers are planning further ahead compared to the previous year, marking a return to traditional seasonality in 2024," Skyscanner reported. That's interesting because as the world emerged from the worst of the COVID-19 pandemic, many travelers were booking at the last minute. Just something to keep in mind as you book your trips.

Other experts we talked with have had other good suggestions.

"No matter when you plan on flying this summer, always set a fare alert to make sure you're getting the best deal," John E. DiScala, Johnny Jet founder and editor-in-chief, said. "Savvy travelers can even create one after they book their tickets. That way, if the price drops, they can get a travel credit."

While you can track prices in a few ways, we're fans of Google Flights because it's easy to use. Let the website do the work, keeping an eye on prices.

Sumers also told TPG that if you notice prices are especially high, wait.

"On the flip side, if a fare doesn't pass the smell test, and seems too high, it's probably worth waiting. Airlines like to test the market far in advance, and see if they can get travelers to bite. If they sell fewer tickets at the higher prices, they'll have to lower their fares to fill their seats. A Tuesday in mid-August – after many U.S. kids return to school — shouldn't have high fares."

Prices will often go up the longer you wait

Prices for airfare continue to climb month over month.

Recent data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics' Consumer Price Index shows prices are still rising, but increases have slowed. The airline fares index rose 3.6% in February, following a 1.4% increase in January. While that's an upward trend, it pales in comparison to the jump of nearly 26% for airfare between January 2022 and January 2023.

"Airline prices are a function of supply and demand," Sumers said in an interview last year. " ... demand is through the roof. Simple economics dictates what will happen. Prices are going to shoot up."

Inflation continues to be a major factor in pushing prices higher. Jet fuel prices have been rising recently, and airlines are even warning it's affecting earnings. It costs more for hotels, food and entertainment.

And it's not just high airline ticket prices.

Some hotels are selling out early — especially in popular European destinations. In fact, some hotels are already fully booked for summer dates, so if you have a particular property in mind, it's best to lock in your stay sooner rather than later.

Summer travel deals are still available

There is some good news for those who haven't booked travel for summer 2024 quite yet: If you time it right, you can still find cheap flights. Many of these options are highlighted in TPG's deal alerts, so be sure to sign up.

In fact, we've shared an incredible number of flight deals to some of the most popular destinations on the planet, including places like Paris, Dublin and London.

Discount carriers like Norse Atlantic Airways also help drive down prices to historically expensive regions.

It's not just cash prices that can be cheap. You can sometimes use points and miles to get great deals — and later even cancel or rebook your trip if a better deal comes along.

For example, this Flying Blue deal to Europe starts at 15,000 miles each way to Amsterdam and other European cities from places like Detroit Metropolitan Wayne County Airport (DTW) and George Bush Intercontinental Airport (IAH).

While we aren't seeing the cruise deals out there like we were when COVID-19 travel restrictions eased, we do have a guide to ways to save on cruises if that's more your jam. "August looks cheaper — probably because schools start going back midmonth in some areas," TPG's managing editor for the cruise team, Erica Silverstein, told me. "The later in August, the cheaper the sailing, most likely."

She also suggested readers look for value-added perks even if the prices aren't super low, such as some cruise lines offering free kids fares (when third and fourth guests are in a cabin).

Related: 6 ways to get a deal on a cruise

Utilize improved travel flexibility to your advantage

During the pandemic's peak, consumers suddenly found themselves with a lot more power as travel demand plummeted; this resulted in airlines and hotels making changing or canceling reservations much easier (and cheaper).

Hotels ditched change fees and early cancellation fees, while airlines made even basic economy tickets more flexible. Some airlines even ended fees for canceling a mileage ticket.

While some of those consumer-friendly policies have been yanked back, many are sticking around for the foreseeable future.

United Airlines, for example, famously said it was eliminating change fees "forever." You'll still need to pay any fare difference when you change flights, but you can at least benefit from the lack of change fees now in many cases.

However, restrictions for basic economy tickets have returned, though they're generally still more flexible than they were before the pandemic.

It's usually best to avoid booking these basic fares unless you are sure you won't need to change or cancel your ticket. DiScala adds that they'll keep you from benefitting from price drops as well, as you won't be able to modify your tickets to save money due to fees tacked on.

Hotels have also gotten more restrictive, but as long as you book a refundable rate, you can make changes to your reservation up until a specified date (usually a few days before your stay is set to begin).

Related: Hotel and flight myths busted: Does your booking method actually matter?

And, of course, many airlines have made family seating rules more consumer-friendly. Some go as far as to guarantee to put you on a different flight without charge if they can't provide seats together for families.

Bottom line

Now is the time to plan and book your summer 2024 travel.

While you still have time to book trips within the U.S. without paying more than you need to, you should set Google Flight alerts for the days and destinations you likely want to book. This way, you won't get priced out of your vacation — or find no availability at all.

This is even more true for international travel.

For those overseas summer trips, you should book soon — or as soon as you see a price that works with your budget — since some options to popular regions like Europe will likely sell out this summer. And then, even if you do manage to snag a last-minute reservation, chances are you'll pay much more than you would've months prior.

Still, Sumers told me that many U.S. airlines have slowed their growth this year, "... which means they'll be flying fewer seats than they once expected. And with fewer seats, they can charge more for each one. But I don't think it's going to be a repeat of 2022 or 2023, when airlines could charge almost anything and people would pay it."

"Revenge travel is mostly over," said Sumers, "and the market has more or less normalized."

Related reading:

• The best airline credit cards
• What exactly are airline miles, anyway?
• 6 real-life strategies you can use when your flight is canceled or delayed
• Maximize your airfare: The best credit cards for booking flights
• The best credit cards to reach elite status
• What are points and miles worth? TPG's monthly valuations