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Is travel demand down due to the omicron variant?

Dec. 13, 2021
8 min read
Orlando, Florida, United States - People wait in line at a TSA security checkpoint at Orlando International Airport on Thanksgiving eve, November 25, 2020, in Orlando, Florida. Thousands of travelers are ignoring CDC warnings to avoid holiday travel as COVID-19 cases are surging across the United States
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The omicron variant came at an inopportune time for travel: the beginning of the busy winter holiday season.

We know that the variant may be more contagious than others and contains several spike protein mutations that may make it less responsive to COVID-19 vaccines. There are also signs it may be more virulent than other variants. All of these factors played a part in why it was deemed a “variant of concern” — the most severe category — by the World Health Organization.

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Fearing a return to March 2020, countries worldwide imposed travel bans and restrictions on much of southern Africa, where the variant was first detected. The U.S., which has already detected the variant in more than a dozen states, banned non-citizen travelers from a handful of African countries and put in a sweeping and confusing new COVID-19 testing policy.

However, there are some positive signs. The U.S.’s top infectious disease expert said omicron appeared to be less severe than last summer’s delta variant, and Pfizer said three doses of its vaccine proved to "neutralize" the variant.

But the seeds of fear and unease may already be in place. Are people postponing their travel plans, even during the holiday season, because of the new variant? Here’s what the experts (and data) say.

Is travel demand down due to the omicron variant?

(Photo by Zach Griff/The Points Guy)

Check any major airline or hotel’s social media feed (or mentions), and you’d think the holiday travel season was getting off without a hitch.

Alaska Airlines offered a buy one, get one free promotion earlier this week, while several major airlines are currently in fare wars with flights to sunny Florida for $100 or less. On the hotel front, several chains are forging ahead with plans to extend elite status to loyal members into 2023 due to the pandemic. Additionally, Hyatt just announced a new Bonus Journeys promotion, which is extremely popular with World of Hyatt loyalists, that will offer 2,022 bonus points for every two qualifying nights.

So, with all of these promotions and excitement around them, is travel demand actually down, or are pundits, travel bloggers and travel experts overreacting?

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Here's what we know so far. A request for Cirium data showed that airlines aren’t experiencing significant schedule changes due to the variant. Airlines are reluctant to share whether travel demand is down, as the Department of Justice could consider it is signaling, which is a possible violation of antitrust laws. Meanwhile, U.S. hotel occupancy for the week ending Dec. 4 was actually up nearly 2% from the previous week (which was 53.0%), the research firm STR found.

With what’s expected to be a busy holiday travel season just weeks away, it doesn’t look like omicron will have a significant impact on holiday travel ... at least, not yet. A survey from the travel deals site Scott’s Cheap Flights found that travelers are concerned about omicron but not enough to prompt them to cancel their trips.

According to Misty Belles, the vice president of global public relations at Virtuoso (a luxury travel network), travelers have had no “typical” behavior during the pandemic.

“Everyone has a different threshold for risk, and evidence of that surfaces whenever a new COVID variant emerges, whether it’s delta or omicron,” Belles told The Points Guy via email. “Those who are more cautious are more likely to postpone their travels. People who are determined to travel are less deterred by the news and are generally more accepting that this is the new reality.”

Belles said she’s noticed that most bookings being canceled or put on hold have been to destinations that have closed their borders in light of the omicron variant. Holiday travel already booked remains largely untouched. However, she also noted that “close-in bookings,” or departures that are within the next week, are more likely to be affected. What that points to is a preference by travelers to shore up their travel plans (and wait to see if their destination is even open for visitors) instead of take spur-of-the-moment vacations.

Tori Emerson Barnes, an executive vice president at the U.S. Travel Association, said that 45% of Americans have tentative holiday travel plans, which is up from 28% in 2020.

"Early indications are that the omicron variant is not having a huge impact on holiday travel plans," Emerson Barnes said in a statement to TPG, "but the public is very much in a cautionary mood."

But even as U.S. airlines press forward with their holiday deals and scheduling, there is some indication that they’re concerned about the threat of the omicron variant.

Scott Kirby, United Airlines' chief executive officer, told the Financial Times that he theorized that “we’ll have less flying to Europe than we would have in January” because of the new variant. The U.S.-to-Europe travel corridor, which just rolled out after the U.S. reopened for travel in November, is a boon for airlines ... one airlines can’t afford to lose.

Kirby also said, this time in an interview with CNBC, that his airline always knew there would be new COVID-19 variants and that “recovery would never be a straight line."

"We look confident about the long term. Nothing changes about where we'll be 12 months from now,” he said.

What did we see after delta?

Travelers check in at the Qatar Airways check-in counter inside the international terminal at San Francisco International Airport (SFO) in San Francisco, California, U.S., on Monday, Nov. 8, 2021. The U.S. is lifting entry restrictions for more than 30 countries, allowing fully vaccinated travelers to fly from places including Europe, China and India. Photographer: David Paul Morris/Bloomberg

Joe Leader, the chief executive officer of the Airline Passenger Experience Association, said he’s noticed airline demand has been resilient in the U.S., but that doesn’t tell the whole story.

“The global impact has been much more uneven,” Leader told TPG through email. He also noted that travel bans may actually be doing more harm than good.

“Countries that have imposed draconian new rules ahead of scientific findings on omicron are seeing air travel demand plummet,” Leader said, adding that countries with massive travel demands, like the United Kingdom, have seen forward bookings drop “around 40%.”

Kirby told CNBC that the omicron variant “is certainly going to have a near-term impact on bookings. ... There will be a short-term dip in revenue, but the dip will be smaller than it was for delta.”

There’s some precedent to show that we may see this again with the new omicron variant, as some data suggests that travel waned slightly due to the delta variant. The Wall Street Journal reported that online travel agencies like Priceline and Kayak experienced fewer bookings last summer due to the delta variant. Additionally, several airlines sounded the alarm on the delta variant, including Southwest Airlines, which noted that it “experienced a deceleration in close-in bookings” in a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission back in August.

Last summer, on behalf of TPG, YouGov surveyed nearly 2,400 adults and found that many people — particularly those who were fully vaccinated — said they felt less comfortable with specific activities in light of the delta variant’s spread. Among those who traveled at least occasionally, half of those fully vaccinated people said they felt “less comfortable” taking domestic flights, and 53% said they felt less comfortable flying internationally.

Travelers quickly pumped the breaks on their plans due to delta; however, this isn't something we've yet seen with omicron.

Bottom line

Ultimately, it’s far too early to tell how omicron will impact both travelers and traveler sentiment as it did with delta.

Some initial data shows the omicron variant isn’t as severe as delta, though it's roughly twice as infectious as earlier COVID-19 variants. More people are also fully vaccinated against COVID-19 now than they were last summer, with more than 55% of the world’s population being fully vaccinated.

These factors, along with one of the busiest travel seasons on the calendar fast approaching, may not be as much of a threat to the travel industry as the delta variant was.

Featured image by NurPhoto via Getty Images
Editorial disclaimer: Opinions expressed here are the author’s alone, not those of any bank, credit card issuer, airline or hotel chain, and have not been reviewed, approved or otherwise endorsed by any of these entities.

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  • Steep $550 annual fee
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  • Earn 80,000 bonus points after you spend $4,000 on purchases in the first 3 months from account opening. That's $1,200 toward travel when you redeem through Chase Ultimate Rewards®
  • $300 Annual Travel Credit as reimbursement for travel purchases charged to your card each account anniversary year.
  • Earn 5x total points on flights and 10x total points on hotels and car rentals when you purchase travel through Chase Ultimate Rewards® immediately after the first $300 is spent on travel purchases annually. Earn 3x points on other travel and dining & 1 point per $1 spent on all other purchases
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Best premium travel card for value
TPG Editor‘s Rating
Card Rating is based on the opinion of TPG‘s editors and is not influenced by the card issuer.
4 / 5
Go to review

Rewards Rate

10xEarn 10x total points on hotels and car rentals when you purchase travel through Chase Ultimate Rewards®.
5xEarn 5x total points on flights through Chase Ultimate Rewards®.
3xEarn 3x points on other travel and dining.
1xEarn 1 point per $1 spent on all other purchases
  • Intro Offer
    Earn 80,000 bonus points after you spend $4,000 on purchases in the first 3 months from account opening. That's $1,200 toward travel when you redeem through Chase Ultimate Rewards®

    80,000 bonus points
  • Annual Fee

    $550
  • Recommended Credit
    Credit ranges are a variation of FICO© Score 8, one of many types of credit scores lenders may use when considering your credit card application.

    740-850
    Excellent

Why We Chose It

If you are looking to take your premium rewards to the highest level, this card is really a no brainer in our eyes. Chase's Ultimate Rewards make points easy to redeem, with a wide range of 10 airline and three hotel transfer partners and a friendly user interface. Despite the high annual fee, Chase is consistently adding new benefits to keep the card competitive in a fierce premium rewards field.

Pros

  • $300 annual travel credit as reimbursement for travel purchases charged to your card each account anniversary year
  • Access to Chase Ultimate Rewards hotel and airline travel partners
  • Unlimited 3x points on the broad category of travel and dining
  • 50% more value when you redeem your points for travel through Chase Ultimate Rewards®
  • Broad definitions for travel and dining bonus categories

Cons

  • Steep $550 annual fee
  • May not make sense for people that don't travel frequently
  • You must spend the $300 travel credit before earning 3x points for travel and dining
  • No automatic hotel elite status
  • Earn 80,000 bonus points after you spend $4,000 on purchases in the first 3 months from account opening. That's $1,200 toward travel when you redeem through Chase Ultimate Rewards®
  • $300 Annual Travel Credit as reimbursement for travel purchases charged to your card each account anniversary year.
  • Earn 5x total points on flights and 10x total points on hotels and car rentals when you purchase travel through Chase Ultimate Rewards® immediately after the first $300 is spent on travel purchases annually. Earn 3x points on other travel and dining & 1 point per $1 spent on all other purchases
  • Get 50% more value when you redeem your points for travel through Chase Ultimate Rewards®. For example, 80,000 points are worth $1,200 toward travel
  • 1:1 point transfer to leading airline and hotel loyalty programs
  • Access to 1,300+ airport lounges worldwide after an easy, one-time enrollment in Priority Pass™ Select and up to $100 application fee credit every four years for Global Entry, NEXUS, or TSA PreCheck®
  • Count on Trip Cancellation/Interruption Insurance, Auto Rental Collision Damage Waiver, Lost Luggage Insurance and more