Thanksgiving travel is almost here — here's what to expect
Quick summary
It may feel like summer was just last week, but believe it or not, the holiday travel season is already approaching.
With just days until Thanksgiving travel begins in earnest, Americans are expected to take to the roads, rails and skies in record numbers starting this weekend. Surely, everyone traveling will be hoping for smooth sailing over the next two months, and nothing like last year's Christmas meltdown.
For now, though, as we get ready to kick off the holiday travel season, here's what travelers can expect as they go to their Thanksgiving celebrations.
Record-breaking Thanksgiving Crowds
It's going to be a busy one.
This year is expected to be one of the busiest holiday travel periods in more than 20 years and certainly the busiest since the pandemic began.
About 55.4 million Americans are expected to travel at least 50 miles from home during the five-day period from Wednesday, Nov. 22, to Sunday, Nov. 26, according to AAA projections. Of those travelers, 4.7 million will fly — a 6.6% increase from last year and the highest number since 2005.
In reality, however, the Thanksgiving travel period has broadened on both sides of the holiday, partly thanks to the proliferation of remote work. That's good news for travelers: By spreading travel out over a longer period, crowds closer to the holiday are better evened out over the entire week than they would have been otherwise.
Airlines for America, the industry group representing U.S. carriers, says airlines are expecting nearly 30 million passengers across the broader 11-day period from Friday, Nov. 17 to Monday, Nov. 27 — an all-time high. That averages to 2.7 million passengers per day, a 9% increase over last year.
The Transportation Security Administration is similarly predicting record crowds.
The single busiest day is expected to be the Sunday after the holiday, Nov. 26, with another record-breaking 3.2 million air passengers on U.S. airlines.
Each major airline defines the Thanksgiving travel period a bit differently, but the biggest three carriers all said they expect to see records broken. American expects 7.8 million travelers, Delta expects up to 6.4 million and United anticipates 5.9 million.
A record number of flights in the air
It won't just be a record-breaking number of passengers in the air; the number of aircraft in the skies will soar as well.
According to the Federal Aviation Administration, the number of flights is expected to peak on Wednesday, Nov. 22, with about 49,600. That tops last year's peak of 48,192, though it falls just short of the busiest day of 2023. On Thursday, June 23, 52,999 flights took to the skies.
The greater number of flights can pose challenges that sometimes result in delays.
Ongoing air traffic controller staffing shortages can make it difficult to manage flights when bad weather requires more spacing between them, and short staffing can make it difficult to get things back on track if delays start stacking up for any reason.
"We certainly need to see more air traffic controllers in place," American Airlines chief operating officer David Seymour told ABC News this week. "We just have to be mindful that when weather hits certain parts of the country, there are going to be constraints."
For the airlines, it's a matter of managing whatever factors are within their control.
"In addition to monitoring the weather conditions and everything that we're up against, this team here is working directly with the FAA and all of their air traffic control programs and figuring out how we navigate the system," said Matt Sparks, a senior vice president at Delta who oversees the airline's operations and customer center.
"We also have representatives from all over the airline, from our airports, maintenance, and reservations, so they can handle situations in real-time and make sure that we get the quickest resolution for our customers and keep the operation moving," Sparks added.
Although the airlines are optimistic and in a better position in terms of their staff than they were last year, bad weather is the big wild card that can throw everything off.
"My No. 1 recommendation to people would be pray for good weather," Airlines for America CEO Nick Calio said on ABC. "That is always the key."
Bad weather poses a threat to Thanksgiving travel
Things should be relatively easy for Americans traveling for Thanksgiving on the earlier side, according to AccuWeather. Some rainy and breezy conditions can be expected in the Northeast and parts of the West Coast on Saturday, along with spotty showers over the central and southern Plains, but the rain and wind shouldn't be too intense.
Conditions will mostly clear by Sunday, although a fast-paced storm could bring some rain (and snow, in higher elevations) around the Northwest.
As Thanksgiving week begins, however, things may deteriorate, according to AccuWeather.
There is potential for a storm to develop on Tuesday and Wednesday that could bring heavy rain from the Ohio and Tennessee valleys all the way across the Northeast. This would affect airline hubs across the region, including those in Atlanta, Detroit and New York, where the air traffic controller shortage is most acute.
At the same time, rain and possibly snow across the Plains and the Midwest could lead to further air delays along with slick roads for drivers. The Northwest and northern Rockies could see an impact as well.
The good news is that things should clear up after Thanksgiving, making for a smoother return home.
Tips for Thanksgiving Travel
If you're traveling for the holiday, be sure to leave extra time. Get to the airport early or leave a little earlier for your drive. Consider leaving for Thanksgiving a day or two earlier if you have the flexibility.
If you haven't flown in a little while, make sure that your TSA PreCheck, Global Entry or Clear membership is active, and double-check that your Known Traveler Number is attached to your flight reservation.
Download and log into your airline's app if you're flying, and check your reservation periodically to stay on top of any delays.
Keep an eye on TPG for the latest, and most importantly, have a Happy Thanksgiving!
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