The Hidden Cost of Cathay Pacific's Incredible Mistake Fare
2019 is less than a week old, but I'm going to go out on a limb and say that Cathay Pacific's incredible mistake fare will go down as the deal of the year. For a brief window of time on New Year's Eve, Cathay Pacific was selling round-trip business class tickets between Vietnam and the US for about ~$700, and first class tickets were pricing at $1,000 or less. These tickets normally retail for around ~$30,000, meaning that anyone who was able to book this deal scored a sweet $29,000 discount.
Airlines are under no legal obligation to honor these mistake fares, but Cathay Pacific made the honorable yet surprising decision to come out the very next day and announce that it would be honoring these tickets.
Before booking a mistake fare in the future, make sure to read this comprehensive guide to passenger rights in the event that your ticket is cancelled.
The decision to honor these fares was surprising for two reasons. Not only is Cathay suffering a huge financial loss by giving away its top-notch first class product for a small fraction of the cost, but a ton of people ended up participating in this deal, putting it on par with the Hong Kong Airlines business class "sale" between LA and Asia from 2018.
The Hidden Cost of This Mistake Fare
While this deal was incredibly appealing, I'm a little surprised at the sheer number of people who took advantage of it, as it requires positioning to Vietnam to start your trip, and then returning from Vietnam at the end. Essentially you have to book your own round-trip ticket to Vietnam in order to fly in Cathay Pacific first or business class.
The carrier normally operates four daily flights between Hong Kong (HKG) and New York-JFK, with three flying nonstop and one stopping in Vancouver (YVR) on the way. With six seats in the first class cabin of the carrier's 777-300ER, that equates to 24 first class seats per day flying in each direction between JFK and Hong Kong. Cathay is normally steadfast and predictable about releasing one first class award seat per flight far in advance when the schedule opens, and occasionally a second closer to departure.
It's hard to say exactly how many people booked the mistake fare, but a quick search on ExpertFlyer shows that dozens of Cathay Pacific flights for the next year are entirely sold out in first class. Here's what flights look like on the Sunday of Labor Day weekend from HKG to JFK:
Three flights are sold out entirely in first class, while 21 of the 24 seats on this day are booked up. That's an 87.5% load factor nine months in advance.
Obviously this isn't true for every flight on every day, but there are plenty of summer days that are mostly booked up as well. And remember, that the deal was for round-trip airfare, so every person who took advantage of this mistake fare took two first class seats off the market.
How does that compare to some of Cathay's other international destinations? As an example, the carrier only flies one daily flight to Paris (CDG) with a first class cabin, and there isn't a single day in all of August that the flight is sold out in first. In fact, almost every day has four or more F seats available to this popular business and leisure destination:
Even if first class cabins to the US aren't entirely booked up, there will still be a serious pinch on award space. At the time of writing, Cathay has seven first class award seats from Hong Kong to JFK for the entire month of August. Out of the 744 first class seats flying that route (24 a day for 31 days), barely 1% are available for awards. If you're flexible with your dates, it's often possible to find seven first class award seats each week between these two cities given the four daily flights. That will almost certainly change for most of 2019.
Furthermore, I wouldn't be surprised if Cathay Pacific decided to impose additional restrictions on award space to help dig out of this financial hole. If there's only one first class seat left on a flight, selling it to a paying customer for $10,000 or more will do them much more good than giving it away for next to nothing to an award traveler. If you've been eyeing a Cathay Pacific first class award redemption for this year, I would strongly recommend locking down space now while there are still award seats left.
Bottom Line
Award travelers love Cathay Pacific for (among other things) the relatively predictable way it releases premium cabin award space. With hundreds of seats in 2019 being filled by "paying customers," expect it to be much harder than usual to find first class award seats on one of the world's best airlines. All hope isn't lost though, as there are still examples of first class cabins with wide open inventory. Just be sure to focus on those options to prevent any disappointment.
And if you were able to book this mistake fare, enjoy the trip!
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- Earn 4X Membership Rewards® points per dollar spent on purchases at restaurants worldwide, on up to $50,000 in purchases per calendar year, then 1X points for the rest of the year.
- Earn 4X Membership Rewards® points per dollar spent at US supermarkets, on up to $25,000 in purchases per calendar year, then 1X points for the rest of the year.
- Earn 3X Membership Rewards® points per dollar spent on flights booked directly with airlines or on AmexTravel.com.
- Earn 2X Membership Rewards® points per dollar spent on prepaid hotels and other eligible purchases booked on AmexTravel.com.
- Earn 1X Membership Rewards® point per dollar spent on all other eligible purchases.
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Rewards Rate
| 4X | Earn 4X Membership Rewards® points per dollar spent on purchases at restaurants worldwide, on up to $50,000 in purchases per calendar year, then 1X points for the rest of the year. |
| 4X | Earn 4X Membership Rewards® points per dollar spent at US supermarkets, on up to $25,000 in purchases per calendar year, then 1X points for the rest of the year. |
| 3X | Earn 3X Membership Rewards® points per dollar spent on flights booked directly with airlines or on AmexTravel.com. |
| 2X | Earn 2X Membership Rewards® points per dollar spent on prepaid hotels and other eligible purchases booked on AmexTravel.com. |
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You may be eligible for as high as 100,000 Membership Rewards® Points after spending $6,000 in eligible purchases on your new Card in your first 6 months of Membership. Welcome offers vary and you may not be eligible for an offer.As High As 100,000 points. Find Out Your Offer.Annual Fee
$325Recommended Credit
Credit ranges are a variation of FICO® Score 8, one of many types of credit scores lenders may use when considering your credit card application.Excellent to Good
Why We Chose It
There’s a lot to love about the Amex Gold. It’s a fan favorite thanks to its fantastic bonus-earning rates at restaurants worldwide and at U.S. supermarkets. If you’re hitting the skies soon, you’ll also earn bonus Membership Rewards points on travel. Paired with up to $120 in Uber Cash annually (for U.S. Uber rides or Uber Eats orders, card must be added to Uber app and you can redeem with any Amex card), up to $120 in annual dining statement credits to be used with eligible partners, an up to $84 Dunkin’ credit each year at U.S. Dunkin Donuts and an up to $100 Resy credit annually, there’s no reason that foodies shouldn’t add the Amex Gold to their wallet. These benefits alone are worth more than $400, which offsets the $325 annual fee on the Amex Gold card. Enrollment is required for select benefits. (Partner offer)Pros
- 4 points per dollar spent on dining at restaurants worldwide and U.S. supermarkets (on the first $50,000 in purchases per calendar year; then 1 point per dollar spent thereafter and $25,000 in purchases per calendar year; then 1 point per dollar spent thereafter, respectively)
- 3 points per dollar spent on flights booked directly with the airline or with amextravel.com
- Packed with credits foodies will enjoy
- Solid welcome bonus
Cons
- Not as useful for those living outside the U.S.
- Some may have trouble using Uber and other dining credits
- You may be eligible for as high as 100,000 Membership Rewards® Points after you spend $6,000 in eligible purchases on your new Card in your first 6 months of Card Membership. Welcome offers vary and you may not be eligible for an offer. Apply to know if you’re approved and find out your exact welcome offer amount – all with no credit score impact. If you’re approved and choose to accept the Card, your score may be impacted.
- Earn 4X Membership Rewards® points per dollar spent on purchases at restaurants worldwide, on up to $50,000 in purchases per calendar year, then 1X points for the rest of the year.
- Earn 4X Membership Rewards® points per dollar spent at US supermarkets, on up to $25,000 in purchases per calendar year, then 1X points for the rest of the year.
- Earn 3X Membership Rewards® points per dollar spent on flights booked directly with airlines or on AmexTravel.com.
- Earn 2X Membership Rewards® points per dollar spent on prepaid hotels and other eligible purchases booked on AmexTravel.com.
- Earn 1X Membership Rewards® point per dollar spent on all other eligible purchases.
- $120 Uber Cash on Gold: Add your Gold Card to your Uber account and get $10 in Uber Cash each month to use on orders and rides in the U.S. when you select an American Express Card for your transaction. That’s up to $120 Uber Cash annually. Plus, after using your Uber Cash, use your Card to earn 4X Membership Rewards® points for Uber Eats purchases made with restaurants or U.S. supermarkets. Point caps and terms apply.
- $84 Dunkin' Credit: With the $84 Dunkin' Credit, you can earn up to $7 in monthly statement credits after you enroll and pay with the American Express® Gold Card at U.S. Dunkin' locations. Enrollment is required to receive this benefit.
- $100 Resy Credit: Get up to $100 in statement credits each calendar year after you pay with the American Express® Gold Card to dine at U.S. Resy restaurants or make other eligible Resy purchases. That's up to $50 in statement credits semi-annually. Enrollment required.
- $120 Dining Credit: Satisfy your cravings, sweet or savory, with the $120 Dining Credit. Earn up to $10 in statement credits monthly when you pay with the American Express® Gold Card at Grubhub, The Cheesecake Factory, Goldbelly, Wine.com, and Five Guys. Enrollment required.
- Explore over 1,000 upscale hotels worldwide with The Hotel Collection and receive a $100 credit towards eligible charges* with every booking of two nights or more through AmexTravel.com. *Eligible charges vary by property.
- No Foreign Transaction Fees.
- Annual Fee is $325.
- Terms Apply.