Here's why this fall is such a good time to book a flight
It’s the most wonderful time of the year ... for airfare.
Autumn “shoulder season” is here. That means lower flight prices as the crowds taper off in the wake of summer before returning for the busy holiday rush.
The season started in August, as earlier school start dates helped thin out congestion on airport concourses. Transportation Security Agency checkpoints saw about 5% fewer passengers in August than in July — a refreshing bit of (relative) calm after a summer that brought the 10 busiest days ever at U.S. airports.
That trend should continue into the fall months, bringing lower fares with it.
How expensive is airfare right now?
September domestic round-trip airfare is trending about 8% below 2023 levels, according to booking app Hopper. In October, prices are down about 7%, year over year.
This is despite airlines’ best efforts to shift route networks and flight frequencies in hopes of disrupting a downward shift in fares. It's a trend that has hurt carriers’ profitability all year amid a glut of domestic flight offerings.
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Between September and November, the total number of seats airlines will offer on domestic flights is up a modest 2.5% over last year, according to data from aviation analytics firm Cirium.
It's up even though several airlines are slashing late-year flying. For example, budget carrier Frontier Airlines is eliminating scores of flights on low-demand days like Tuesdays and Wednesdays.
The carrier predicted that its moves — along with those of Southwest Airlines, JetBlue and others — would help fuel fare increases in the late-summer and early-fall months.
“More likely ... I think we’re going to see prices continue to dip where we are now — and stay low, because it’s the shoulder season, demand could be low," countered Hayley Berg, Hopper’s lead economist.
Here’s what to know if you’re thinking of taking advantage of deals and booking a fall getaway.
How early should I book a flight?
Google Flights is seeing domestic fares at their lowest about 38 days before departure. The ideal booking range is 21 to 52 days before takeoff.
Translation: If you’re thinking of a mid-October getaway to catch fall foliage, now would be a good time to get serious about booking.
Read more: The best time to book flights for the cheapest airfare in 2024
If you’re flying internationally, book as early as possible. The “sweet spot,” these days, is about 101 days ahead of takeoff. However, you’ll want to look at least 50 days in advance for the lowest price.
Fifty days from now puts you in the vicinity of a late-October or early-November trip.
Book a trip for a Tuesday, Wednesday or Saturday
Those midweek days are often the least crowded at airports, airlines consistently say.
Look no further than the almost deafening calm I found on a recent Wednesday morning at Raleigh-Durham International Airport (RDU).
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Flying on a Friday or a Sunday? That’s a very different story.
If you have to fly on a weekend day, Saturday is routinely one of the cheapest — and quietest — days of the entire week.
Hop on the postsummer Europe bandwagon
Though we’ve mostly talked about lower demand during the fall months, airlines have taken notice of a somewhat paradoxical trend: More and more travelers are opting to fly to Europe during the supposed “off-peak months.”
“We are really seeing an extension into September and October, and really into November, that European demand across the board is remaining strong,” Delta Air Lines president Glen Hauenstein told financial analysts in July. “It’s actually a better time to go to Europe in September and October than it is potentially in July and August, when the weather is so hot, and everything is so packed.”
Southern Europe popular in fall
This is especially true in southern Europe. This fall, Delta, American Airlines and United Airlines will offer 55% more seats to Italy than they did in 2019, for instance, Cirium data shows.
Airlines across the board will fly with 45% more seats to Portugal this fall than five years ago.
How expensive are Europe flights?
Flight prices to many European cities are trending lower. According to FCM Travel and Corporate Traveler — the flagship business travel divisions of Flight Centre Travel Group — data shows a nearly 20% drop in fares to France in recent months and around an 18% drop in fares to the U.K., year over year.
Don’t forget about your points and miles
The fact that so many airlines have ditched award charts is, by and large, not a positive development for consumers. It is perhaps among the tactics that have caught the U.S. Department of Transportation's attention.
However, dynamic award pricing can work in your favor when demand is low and prices are low. Points pricing is more closely tied to the algorithmic forces that drive cash prices.
For that reason, certainly consider using your points and miles.
Mile watch: DOT launches formal probe of big airline frequent flyer programs
At the same time, you may want to consider using cash to book a flight and miles to upgrade to a business-class seat on a long-haul flight. Or, consider using your points on a high-value hotel redemption, such as with World of Hyatt. (You can transfer Chase Ultimate Rewards and Bilt Rewards points to Hyatt at a 1:1 rate.)
Hotel prices have remained steady or even higher than last year, of late.
Start looking at the holidays
We’d be remiss if we didn’t mention the looming holiday season, when airport crowds are sure to ramp back up.
Google Flights suggests booking your Thanksgiving flights by early October and your Christmas and New Year’s flights no later than than second half of October.
Related reading:
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Annual Fee
Recommended Credit
Why We Chose It
There’s a lot to love about the Amex Gold. It’s a fan favorite thanks to its fantastic bonus-earning rates at restaurants worldwide and at U.S. supermarkets. If you’re hitting the skies soon, you’ll also earn bonus Membership Rewards points on travel. Paired with up to $120 in Uber Cash annually (for U.S. Uber rides or Uber Eats orders, card must be added to Uber app and you can redeem with any Amex card), up to $120 in annual dining statement credits to be used with eligible partners, an up to $84 Dunkin’ credit each year at U.S. Dunkin Donuts and an up to $100 Resy credit annually, there’s no reason that foodies shouldn’t add the Amex Gold to their wallet. These benefits alone are worth more than $400, which offsets the $325 annual fee on the Amex Gold card. Enrollment is required for select benefits. (Partner offer)Pros
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- Not as useful for those living outside the U.S.
- Some may have trouble using Uber and other dining credits
- You may be eligible for as high as 100,000 Membership Rewards® Points after you spend $6,000 in eligible purchases on your new Card in your first 6 months of Card Membership. Welcome offers vary and you may not be eligible for an offer. Apply to know if you’re approved and find out your exact welcome offer amount – all with no credit score impact. If you’re approved and choose to accept the Card, your score may be impacted.
- Earn 4X Membership Rewards® points per dollar spent on purchases at restaurants worldwide, on up to $50,000 in purchases per calendar year, then 1X points for the rest of the year.
- Earn 4X Membership Rewards® points per dollar spent at US supermarkets, on up to $25,000 in purchases per calendar year, then 1X points for the rest of the year.
- Earn 3X Membership Rewards® points per dollar spent on flights booked directly with airlines or on AmexTravel.com.
- Earn 2X Membership Rewards® points per dollar spent on prepaid hotels and other eligible purchases booked on AmexTravel.com.
- Earn 1X Membership Rewards® point per dollar spent on all other eligible purchases.
- $120 Uber Cash on Gold: Add your Gold Card to your Uber account and get $10 in Uber Cash each month to use on orders and rides in the U.S. when you select an American Express Card for your transaction. That’s up to $120 Uber Cash annually. Plus, after using your Uber Cash, use your Card to earn 4X Membership Rewards® points for Uber Eats purchases made with restaurants or U.S. supermarkets. Point caps and terms apply.
- $84 Dunkin' Credit: With the $84 Dunkin' Credit, you can earn up to $7 in monthly statement credits after you enroll and pay with the American Express® Gold Card at U.S. Dunkin' locations. Enrollment is required to receive this benefit.
- $100 Resy Credit: Get up to $100 in statement credits each calendar year after you pay with the American Express® Gold Card to dine at U.S. Resy restaurants or make other eligible Resy purchases. That's up to $50 in statement credits semi-annually. Enrollment required.
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- No Foreign Transaction Fees.
- Annual Fee is $325.
- Terms Apply.
Rewards Rate
| 4X | Earn 4X Membership Rewards® points per dollar spent on purchases at restaurants worldwide, on up to $50,000 in purchases per calendar year, then 1X points for the rest of the year. |
| 4X | Earn 4X Membership Rewards® points per dollar spent at US supermarkets, on up to $25,000 in purchases per calendar year, then 1X points for the rest of the year. |
| 3X | Earn 3X Membership Rewards® points per dollar spent on flights booked directly with airlines or on AmexTravel.com. |
| 2X | Earn 2X Membership Rewards® points per dollar spent on prepaid hotels and other eligible purchases booked on AmexTravel.com. |
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Intro Offer
You may be eligible for as high as 100,000 Membership Rewards® Points after spending $6,000 in eligible purchases on your new Card in your first 6 months of Membership. Welcome offers vary and you may not be eligible for an offer.As High As 100,000 points. Find Out Your Offer.Annual Fee
$325Recommended Credit
Credit ranges are a variation of FICO® Score 8, one of many types of credit scores lenders may use when considering your credit card application.Excellent to Good
Why We Chose It
There’s a lot to love about the Amex Gold. It’s a fan favorite thanks to its fantastic bonus-earning rates at restaurants worldwide and at U.S. supermarkets. If you’re hitting the skies soon, you’ll also earn bonus Membership Rewards points on travel. Paired with up to $120 in Uber Cash annually (for U.S. Uber rides or Uber Eats orders, card must be added to Uber app and you can redeem with any Amex card), up to $120 in annual dining statement credits to be used with eligible partners, an up to $84 Dunkin’ credit each year at U.S. Dunkin Donuts and an up to $100 Resy credit annually, there’s no reason that foodies shouldn’t add the Amex Gold to their wallet. These benefits alone are worth more than $400, which offsets the $325 annual fee on the Amex Gold card. Enrollment is required for select benefits. (Partner offer)Pros
- 4 points per dollar spent on dining at restaurants worldwide and U.S. supermarkets (on the first $50,000 in purchases per calendar year; then 1 point per dollar spent thereafter and $25,000 in purchases per calendar year; then 1 point per dollar spent thereafter, respectively)
- 3 points per dollar spent on flights booked directly with the airline or with amextravel.com
- Packed with credits foodies will enjoy
- Solid welcome bonus
Cons
- Not as useful for those living outside the U.S.
- Some may have trouble using Uber and other dining credits
- You may be eligible for as high as 100,000 Membership Rewards® Points after you spend $6,000 in eligible purchases on your new Card in your first 6 months of Card Membership. Welcome offers vary and you may not be eligible for an offer. Apply to know if you’re approved and find out your exact welcome offer amount – all with no credit score impact. If you’re approved and choose to accept the Card, your score may be impacted.
- Earn 4X Membership Rewards® points per dollar spent on purchases at restaurants worldwide, on up to $50,000 in purchases per calendar year, then 1X points for the rest of the year.
- Earn 4X Membership Rewards® points per dollar spent at US supermarkets, on up to $25,000 in purchases per calendar year, then 1X points for the rest of the year.
- Earn 3X Membership Rewards® points per dollar spent on flights booked directly with airlines or on AmexTravel.com.
- Earn 2X Membership Rewards® points per dollar spent on prepaid hotels and other eligible purchases booked on AmexTravel.com.
- Earn 1X Membership Rewards® point per dollar spent on all other eligible purchases.
- $120 Uber Cash on Gold: Add your Gold Card to your Uber account and get $10 in Uber Cash each month to use on orders and rides in the U.S. when you select an American Express Card for your transaction. That’s up to $120 Uber Cash annually. Plus, after using your Uber Cash, use your Card to earn 4X Membership Rewards® points for Uber Eats purchases made with restaurants or U.S. supermarkets. Point caps and terms apply.
- $84 Dunkin' Credit: With the $84 Dunkin' Credit, you can earn up to $7 in monthly statement credits after you enroll and pay with the American Express® Gold Card at U.S. Dunkin' locations. Enrollment is required to receive this benefit.
- $100 Resy Credit: Get up to $100 in statement credits each calendar year after you pay with the American Express® Gold Card to dine at U.S. Resy restaurants or make other eligible Resy purchases. That's up to $50 in statement credits semi-annually. Enrollment required.
- $120 Dining Credit: Satisfy your cravings, sweet or savory, with the $120 Dining Credit. Earn up to $10 in statement credits monthly when you pay with the American Express® Gold Card at Grubhub, The Cheesecake Factory, Goldbelly, Wine.com, and Five Guys. Enrollment required.
- Explore over 1,000 upscale hotels worldwide with The Hotel Collection and receive a $100 credit towards eligible charges* with every booking of two nights or more through AmexTravel.com. *Eligible charges vary by property.
- No Foreign Transaction Fees.
- Annual Fee is $325.
- Terms Apply.