Are summer deals finally back? We're seeing a lot more cash, points and miles bargains this year

From "revenge travel" to the "sold-out summer," there's been no shortage of nicknames for the travel craze that has spanned multiple summers.

But could 2024 be the "return of the airfare bargain?"

It's too early to say for sure, but after experiencing sky-high fares during the last two summers, it's looking travelers might have more deals in store for the second half of 2024.

To be clear, the crowds haven't tapered off at all. In fact, airports are already setting records. However, unlike 2022 and 2023, we've noticed something of a pleasant surprise: True flight deals are popping up, and you can snag them by paying in cash or — in some cases — by redeeming your miles.

Finding cheap summer flights

TPG recently posted a deal alert about 50,000-mile business-class award flights to Europe via KLM. We reported on Southwest Airlines offering its much-coveted Companion Pass to travelers who booked a flight to Hawaii. Last week, we flagged round-trip fares to Europe for less than $400, as well as late-summer and early-fall bargains to the likes of Belize, Italy and Spain.

Newcomer Breeze Airways recently celebrated its third birthday by cutting fares by 33% for a short time.

"There are definitely more deals this year," said Tim Qin, founder of Roame.travel, which helps users find the best flight mileage redemptions. "Flying Blue, Air France and KLM essentially opened up their entire award calendar a month ago. Delta released some very low 135,000 SkyMiles redemptions for Delta One [Suites] to Seoul just last week; for Delta One, this price is extremely low."

Few travelers are complaining, especially as nagging inflation continues to be a thorn in many budgets.

Still, after two summers in which award space and cheap flights were rather elusive, it's fair to ask: What's behind this more consumer-friendly trend? And, more importantly, will it last?

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Supply and demand

Airfare discounts are often a sign of unfilled seats. Just as a clothing store will discount shirts that aren't selling, airlines will try to entice passengers to book open seats by dropping prices; burning fuel by flying empty seats is one of the fastest ways for an airline to lose money.

It's why fares were so low at the height of the coronavirus pandemic and why Tuesdays and Wednesdays are often the cheapest days of the week to fly — there's less demand.

But that's what makes these recent airfare deals as surprising as they are refreshing for travelers.

A record-breaking number of flyers passed through TSA checkpoints on the Friday of Memorial Day weekend. This past Sunday (June 9) was the second busiest day ever.

In all, seven of the 10 busiest travel days TSA checkpoints have ever seen occurred within the last month, and that number will likely grow as summer continues.

Finding deals is easier this year

Despite the crowds, the deals keep popping up.

"We've seen an increase in sporadic, last-minute deals from specific carriers in the last month," Katy Nastro, spokesperson at cheap flights authority Going, said.

That includes flights to Europe Going has tracked the recent crop of late-summer deals to Europe — both from large hubs and even smaller cities, too, added Daniel Burnham, Nastro's colleague and Going product operations manager and flight expert.

"Even from smaller, regional U.S. airports, many European destinations have parked fares in the $400s, $500s, even for peak months like July," Burnham said.

Domestically, there are all sorts of round-trip flights available for under $140, even for peak periods like Fourth of July week, he added.

"Procrastinators are having better luck this year," Burnham said.

Leading business travel companies FCM and Corporate Travel studied a sample of corporate bookings in June, July and August and found domestic fares dropped by as much as 25% versus that same period last year.

Overseas, some airlines have also recently made note of prices normalizing — or even falling — of late.

However you slice it, it certainly seems the fare backdrop has tilted more in the customer's favor than it was a year or two ago.

What's behind these bargains?

Why the recent sales? It'd be easy to drum up theories.

Could it be the oft-predicted pullback in consumer spending, perhaps an indication of less travel demand ahead?

Between January and May, average household credit and debit card spending on travel was down from last year, according to a recent Bank of America report. However, it was only down by a mere 1.5%.

"Consumer confidence is getting slightly higher. It rose in May after three months of decline," said Riley Dugan, associate professor at the University of Dayton's School of Business Administration in Ohio. "That's a good signal in terms of people traveling."

There's been plenty of gloominess on numerous U.S. airlines' recent earnings calls — save for Delta Air Lines and United Airlines, which have led the way in airline profitability of late. But that's almost certainly "not a demand problem" on the part of customers, concluded a report this week from data firm Melius Research, which cited an "insatiable travel demand" enduring.

Instead, the findings pointed a finger at a problem several airlines have bemoaned for months: stiff competition.

So many seats

This June, July and August, the total number of seats on domestic flights in the U.S. will be up 5% from last year, according to data from aviation analytics firm Cirium. It's a modest jump from last year. Compared to 2022, though, seats are up a steeper 14%. They're up almost 30% versus a decade ago.

In other words, airlines have nearly 30% more seats to fill this summer than they did in the summer of 2014 — and that's just on domestic flights.

The skies between North America and Europe have also become more packed. This summer, transatlantic seats are up 8.5% over last year and nearly 6% over pre-pandemic levels, per Cirium.

It's led to stiff competition to fill seats — particularly domestically. It has also prompted several airlines to scramble their network and shake up strategies in recent months, hoping to boost profitability.

Frontier Airlines has pulled back on heavily oversaturated, highly competitive markets like Orlando and Las Vegas, TPG reported in March.

Southwest has also slowed its growth, and JetBlue is pulling back on some cities and doubling down on others — like San Juan, Puerto Rico.

American Airlines' recent financial hurdles have roots in a self-penned drama over how it handles corporate travel and third-party bookings; however, the carrier says it has also been hurt by the competitive landscape that has driven fares down.

"There's more discounting activity than we saw a year ago," American Airlines Group CEO Robert Isom acknowledged at a Wall Street event late last month.

Will it last?

It's certainly possible the pricing landscape could shift.

Airlines face numerous challenges that could again drive prices up. Labor costs are up. Fuel costs have been a headwind for carriers in recent years.

The industry is constrained by supply chain delays, production setbacks at Boeing, and a Pratt & Whitney GTF engine issue that could ground hundreds of jets for prolonged maintenance over the coming years.

This week, the International Air Transport Association warned those factors (among others) could lead to higher fares in the future.

Competition benefitting consumers

In the meantime, as frustrating as the fight to fill seats has been for airlines, it has created a more encouraging pricing landscape for consumers.

Sure, on any given day if you're searching for a flight, you might not be immune from sticker shock; fares haven't fallen so much that you're guaranteed to find a steal.

But head to Google Flights, and it's certainly easier to find a bargain than it was this time last year — or the year before.

How about a July weekend trip from New York City to New Orleans? That's $160 on Delta.

An August week in Paris after the 2024 Olympics wind down? That's $491 round-trip.

Here's a $555 late-summer round trip between Boston and London.

I ran all those searches in a matter of seconds.

Using miles an option, too

Qin, of Roame.travel, has also tracked some "very specific" award deals of late.

"For example, Virgin Atlantic ran a 50% points redemption discount a few months ago, then proceeded to offer a 30% transfer bonus from Capital One, American Express and Chase — all overlapping at one point," he recalled.

Another?

"ANA and Japan Airlines had a wide release of business- and first-class saver fares across the award calendar for their partners to redeem," Qin added. "It would seem like [airlines] have more unfilled seats to release for award bookings."

How to find the cheapest flights in 2024

Here are some of the best ways to take advantage of the current airfare landscape if you're considering a trip for the coming months.

Aim for August

September and October have traditionally been some of the best months of the year to score good airfare deals, as schools return from summer break. That's certainly a safe bet this year, too.

However, don't rule out a late-summer getaway in August.

Airlines have noted more and more school districts are returning earlier and earlier. That's shifted the traditional summer "peak" far earlier in the calendar, Delta president Glen Hauenstein told analysts in April.

"In our markets, a third of schools were back in session by the second week of August," Southwest chief commercial officer Ryan Green added last October, noting that those numbers were "nearly double what it was pre-pandemic."

Use Google Flights to shop for the best deal

Speaking of Southwest Airlines, the Dallas-based carrier is now (finally) publishing its fares on Google Flights. This, along with some changes in how Frontier presents prices, should make the site a better option for apples-to-apples comparisons in shopping for the lowest fare.

Just be sure to book directly with the airline once you find the itinerary you want.

Check cash and miles

Consider all of your options. Even if you were planning on redeeming miles for a late-summer trip to Europe, a $450 fare might be worth paying cash for.

TPG's awards versus cash calculator can help you make the best decision.

Also, you can always look into using your miles to instead upgrade your coach ticket to, say, a lie-flat business-class seat. Or, you could get a head-start on booking a holiday or winter trip.

Don't forget about international airlines

Don't only rely on U.S. airline loyalty programs. From Air France and KLM's Flying Blue to Avianca's LifeMiles and the Avios currency shared by British Airways, Iberia, Aer Lingus and Qatar Airways — just to name a few — there are many great transfer options for your flexible credit card points.

Need a haul of points for your late-summer or fall trip? Here are some of the best credit card welcome offers we're seeing this month.

Related reading:

• The best time to book flights for the cheapest airfare in 2024
  
• The best airline credit cards
• What exactly are airline miles, anyway?
• 6 real-life strategies you can use when your flight is canceled or delayed
• Maximize your airfare: The best credit cards for booking flights
• The best credit cards to reach elite status
• What are points and miles worth? TPG's monthly valuations