Brace yourself for more crowded cruise ships next year
Bad news, cruise fans: The days of sailing on less-than-full ships is coming to an end.
Executives at several of the world's biggest cruise companies in recent weeks have said nearly all their ships should be running full again by the middle of next year, for the first time since the COVID-19 pandemic began.
For instance, Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings president and CEO Frank Del Rio told Wall Street analysts last week that average occupancy on the company's 29 vessels should ramp up steadily over the next six months and reach 100% by the summer.
In fact, he suggested occupancy across the fleet could be more than 100% by the summer — something that is possible when more than two people stay in a cabin.
Occupancy on Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings' ships was about 82% during the three months that ended Oct. 31 — up from 65% in the three months before that. In both cases, that was far below normal levels.
The company owns three cruise brands: Norwegian Cruise Line, Oceania Cruises and Regent Seven Seas Cruises.
"We expect load factors to continue improving sequentially to the mid-to-high 80% range in the [current quarter] ... and the steady occupancy ramp-up is expected to continue until we reach historical 100%-plus levels beginning in the second quarter of 2023," Del Rio said during a conference call to discuss the company's third-quarter earnings.
Del Rio's comments came just days after Royal Caribbean Group chief financial officer Naftali Holtz told Wall Street analysts that the company expected occupancy levels to return to historical occupancy levels at the company's cruise brands by the spring of 2023.
Royal Caribbean Group is the parent company of Royal Caribbean, Celebrity Cruises and Silversea Cruises, and it's also a part owner in German lines TUI Cruises and Hapag-Lloyd Cruises.
Holtz said Royal Caribbean Group ships finished the third quarter at a 96% occupancy level, which was up significantly from an 82% occupancy level in the second quarter but still below normal.
Royal Caribbean Group ships normally sail at more than 100% occupancies.
The world's biggest cruise company, Carnival Corporation, also is forecasting a return to 100% occupancies on ships by summer 2023. The company reported 84% occupancy for the summer months of July, August and September — up from 69% occupancy for the three months before that.
Carnival Corporation owns nine cruise brands, including Carnival Cruise Line, Princess Cruises, Holland America and Seabourn.
In normal years, most major cruise lines typically report occupancies of 100% or more for their ships. The business model followed by most major lines involves setting prices and investing in marketing at levels that will ensure such a high occupancy, as the economics of cruise ships work best when they run full.
However, occupancy levels on cruise ships fell sharply after the start of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. At first, cruise ships didn't operate at all, and when they started to resume operations, they sometimes sailed with fewer than half of the cabins filled; cruisers were slow to return and cruise lines struggled to lure people back — even with unusually low prices.
Occupancy levels at some lines as recently as the start of 2022 were less than 50%.
While this was a terrible situation for cruise lines, which reported massive financial losses in 2021 and through much of this year, it was a boon for cruisers who wanted to experience vessels with far smaller crowds than normal.
In 2021, some cruise ships sailed with less than 30% of the normal number of passengers while still operating with a normal crew contingent; this resulted in extraordinary service levels in some cases.
Occupancy on cruise ships has been rising throughout 2022 and already is back to normal in some regions, for some lines.
Royal Caribbean Group, for instance, reported earlier this month that its occupancy levels on Caribbean sailings were close to 105%, which is in the normal range. Occupancy for sailings in Alaska during the last quarter was about 96%, which is below normal, the company said.
Royal Caribbean Group reported occupancy levels on Europe cruises of just under 90% for the third quarter.
Planning a cruise? Start with these stories:
- The 5 most desirable cabin locations on any cruise ship
- The 8 worst cabin locations on any cruise ship
- A quick guide to the most popular cruise lines
- 21 tips and tricks that will make your cruise go smoothly
- 15 ways cruisers waste money
- 12 best cruises for people who never want to grow up
- What to pack for your first cruise
TPG featured card
at American Express's secure site
Terms & restrictions apply. See rates & fees.
| 3X | Earn 3X Miles on Delta purchases. |
| 1X | Earn 1X Miles on all other eligible purchases. |
Pros
- Delta SkyClub access when flying Delta
- Annual companion ticket for travel on Delta (upon renewal)
- Ability to earn MQDs through spending
- Various statement credits for eligible purchases
Cons
- Steep annual fee of $650
- Other Delta cobranded cards offer superior earning categories
- Earn 100,000 Bonus Miles after you spend $6,000 or more in purchases with your new Card within the first 6 months of Card Membership and an additional 25,000 bonus miles after you make an additional $3,000 in purchases on the Card within your first 6 months, starting from the date that your account is opened. Offer Ends 04/01/2026.
- Delta SkyMiles® Reserve American Express Card Members receive 15 Visits per Medallion® Year to the Delta Sky Club® when flying Delta and can unlock an unlimited number of Visits after spending $75,000 in purchases on your Card in a calendar year. Plus, you’ll receive four One-Time Guest Passes each Medallion Year so you can share the experience with family and friends when traveling Delta together.
- Enjoy complimentary access to The Centurion® Lounge in the U.S. and select international locations (as set forth on the Centurion Lounge Website), Sidecar by The Centurion® Lounge in the U.S. (see the Centurion Lounge Website for more information on Sidecar by The Centurion® Lounge availability), and Escape Lounges when flying on a Delta flight booked with the Delta SkyMiles® Reserve American Express Card. § To access Sidecar by The Centurion® Lounge, Card Members must arrive within 90 minutes of their departing flight (including layovers). To access The Centurion® Lounge, Card Members must arrive within 3 hours of their departing flight. Effective July 8, 2026, during a layover, Card Members must arrive within 5 hours of the connecting flight.
- Receive $2,500 Medallion® Qualification Dollars with MQD Headstart each Medallion Qualification Year and earn $1 MQD for each $10 in purchases on your Delta SkyMiles® Reserve American Express Card with MQD Boost to get closer to Status next Medallion Year.
- Enjoy a Companion Certificate on a Delta First, Delta Comfort, or Delta Main round-trip flight to select destinations each year after renewal of your Card. The Companion Certificate requires payment of government-imposed taxes and fees of between $22 and $250 (for itineraries with up to four flight segments). Baggage charges and other restrictions apply. Delta Basic experiences are not eligible for this benefit.
- $240 Resy Credit: When you use your Delta SkyMiles® Reserve American Express Card for eligible purchases with U.S. Resy restaurants, you can earn up to $20 each month in statement credits. Enrollment required.
- $120 Rideshare Credit: Earn up to $10 back in statement credits each month after you use your Delta SkyMiles® Reserve American Express Card to pay for U.S. rideshare purchases with select providers. Enrollment required.
- Delta SkyMiles® Reserve American Express Card Members get 15% off when using miles to book Award Travel on Delta flights through delta.com and the Fly Delta app. Discount not applicable to partner-operated flights or to taxes and fees.
- With your Delta SkyMiles® Reserve American Express Card, receive upgrade priority over others with the same Medallion tier, product and fare experience purchased, and Million Miler milestone when you fly with Delta.
- Earn 3X Miles on Delta purchases and earn 1X Miles on all other eligible purchases.
- No Foreign Transaction Fees. Enjoy international travel without additional fees on purchases made abroad.
- $650 Annual Fee.
- Apply with confidence. Know if you're approved for a Card with no impact to your credit score. If you're approved and you choose to accept this Card, your credit score may be impacted.
- Terms Apply.
- See Rates & Fees