Check your flights: Cancellations grow following 737 MAX 9 grounding

There’s no end in sight for cancellations triggered by the grounding of Boeing 737 MAX 9 aircraft across the country in the wake of a harrowing inflight emergency late last week.

Alaska Airlines on Wednesday announced plans to cancel hundreds of flights through at least Saturday, five days after one of its aircraft experienced an "explosive" loss of cabin pressure when a door plug separated from the fuselage of a MAX 9 aircraft.

Though the emergency did not result in any fatalities, the Federal Aviation Administration ordered all MAX 9 planes grounded and inspected.

“The safety of the flying public, not speed, will determine the timeline for returning the [aircraft] to service,” the FAA said in a statement Tuesday.

However, Alaska and United Airlines, plus other carriers that fly the MAX 9 to and from the U.S., are still awaiting documentation from Boeing and the FAA that would detail the exact inspection steps required, Alaska officials said Wednesday.

That wait for instructions, plus the time it could take to check aircraft — and potentially repair them — leaves uncertain when flight operations might be back on track.

Which airlines fly the 737 MAX 9?

Two U.S. airlines and several international carriers that fly to the U.S. currently have Boeing 737 MAX 9 aircraft in their fleets.

United leads the way: The Chicago-based carrier has 79 Boeing 737 MAX 9s in service. Prior to last weekend, United had 7,951 flights with the MAX 9 scheduled for this month, according to aviation analytics firm Cirium.

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Alaska, which has 65 Boeing 737 MAX 9s in service (and 25 on order), had more than 5,000 MAX 9 flights planned for this month.

Mexican flag carrier Aeromexico and Panama-based Copa Airlines also fly the jet on routes to the U.S.

Globally, there are currently 215 MAX 9s in service, Cirium reports.

Operational impact from MAX 9 grounding

By early afternoon Wednesday, United — which has the largest fleet of MAX 9s among U.S. carriers — had canceled more than 200 flights, about 8% of its schedule, according to data from FlightAware.

Alaska had canceled more than 120 flights Wednesday, which amounted to nearly a fifth of its flight schedule, FlightAware shows.

The two airlines combined have canceled nearly 2,000 flights since Friday’s inflight emergency. And more are expected in the coming days.

Alaska anticipates between 110 and 150 daily cancellations through at least Saturday.

United has already scrapped 116 flights for Thursday — with more likely to come. (The Chicago-based carrier notes it has been able to prevent some cancellations by using different aircraft types).

Making matters worse, the MAX 9-triggered cancellations come alongside a wave of disruptions caused by bad weather in parts of the country this week – including a storm system on the East Coast that affected operations at several major airports.

Among affected international airlines, Copa on Wednesday announced the temporary suspension of operations for all of its 21 MAX 9s. The Panama-based carrier insisted it would accommodate passengers with free rebooking, penalty-free itinerary changes, refunds, meals and other expenses when necessary.

How long will the 737 MAX 9 stay grounded?

How long might the flight disruptions last? It depends on how long the MAX 9 stays grounded, which itself depends on what the investigation reveals about the precise problem that caused Friday’s emergency and the nature of the inspection airlines must perform, aviation experts say.

Though the National Transportation Safety Board is still looking into what exactly caused the door plug on the Alaska aircraft to come loose, the investigation has focused on the bolts that secure the door plug, which is used to fill the space of an unused emergency exit.

Complicating matters, initial inspections of other MAX 9 jets by United and Alaska have revealed instances of installation defects on door plugs.

That likely signals a longer, more significant process to satisfy safety needs compared with a "one-off" incident, says Shem Malmquist, a longtime captain, flight safety and accident investigations expert. (Malmquist also currently serves as an instructor at Florida Institute of Technology’s College of Aeronautics.)

“They will need to inspect the door itself, and with the bolts [from the Alaska flight] missing altogether, they cannot know for certain where the issue is just yet,” Malmquist explained. “They will have to just ensure everything is intact ... they will have to inspect every airplane out there that had this type of plug door.”

With Boeing facing criticism for Friday’s incident — just the latest concern stemming from a 737 MAX aircraft — CEO Dave Calhoun promised a thorough review before any MAX 9s are allowed back in the sky.

“We’re going to want to know what broke down in our gauntlet of inspections, what broke down in the original work that allowed for that escape to happen,” Calhoun said during a live interview on CNBC.

His comments came a day after he vowed to "acknowledge our mistake" during a town hall with Boeing employees, a portion of which the company shared publicly.

Bottom line

As the investigations unfold, it’s worth keeping a close eye on your airline’s app if you have a booking for the coming days — primarily aboard United or Alaska — in the event your flight is canceled. Affected passengers could also see their reservations changed, including being rebooked to another itinerary. If you’re flying on Alaska, it’s possible you could get rebooked on its domestic partner, American Airlines.

As always, if your flight is canceled or significantly delayed, or the schedule drastically changes — and you choose not to fly — you’re entitled to a refund under U.S. Department of Transportation policies.

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