Air travel won’t return to pre-coronvirus levels until 2023, airline group predicts
This post contains references to products from one or more of our advertisers. We may receive compensation when you click on links to those products. Terms apply to the offers listed on this page. For an explanation of our Advertising Policy, visit this page.
While Florida beaches and Iceland’s Blue Lagoon may tempt some travelers to get off their couches and fly somewhere this summer, air travelers are not expected to return to the skies in large numbers anytime soon.
The International Air Transport Association (IATA), the largest global airline organization, does not believe traffic numbers to return to pre-coronavirus pandemic levels until around 2023, according to its latest forecast. Domestic flyers in markets like China and the U.S. will return first in about two years and international flyers a year or two later by 2024.
“We are eager to fly,” IATA director general Alexandre de Juniac said during a briefing on Wednesday. But eagerness is not enough, at least not yet, to get those fearful of COVID-19 or who have lost their jobs back on planes.
Get Coronavirus travel updates. Stay on top of industry impacts, flight cancellations, and more.
Some destinations are or plan to be open for at least part of the summer. Beaches are open in parts of Florida and Allegiant Air, JetBlue Airways and Spirit Airlines — all of which cater primarily to non-business travelers — are seeing small but noticeable increases in the number of people on flights to the state.
In Europe, the European Union’s economic affairs commissioner Paolo Gentiloni said Wednesday that the bloc “will have a summer tourist season.” Any opening, however, will come with clear health and safety guidelines to reduce the risk of spreading COVID-19.
What is not yet clear is whether any EU reopening would welcome both Americans and Europeans, or focus on something of a “travel bubble” among member states.
One possibility for summer holidays is the approach proposed by Iceland. The island hopes to reopen for visitors by June 15 with either mandatory COVID-19 tests or 14-day quarantines upon arrival.
Related: When will international travel return? A country-by-country guide to coronavirus recovery
Any summer travel will be a welcome relief to airlines. U.S. carriers are losing as much as $50 million a day, hoping simply to get to a break-even point by year’s end. While those numbers do not include the relief provided by the federal government’s $2 trillion coronavirus aid package, the CARES Act, carriers are still preparing for significant service cuts and layoffs this fall.
Alaska Airlines, American Airlines and Delta Air Lines have retired some older jets to prepare for a smaller future. These include the Airbus A319s Alaska inherited from Virgin America in 2016, and American’s entire fleet of Boeing 757s and 767s. Aviation fans will especially miss Delta’s McDonnell Douglas MD-88s and MD-90s that operate their last flights on June 2.
And at United Airlines, the carrier’s upgrade-friendly premium 757-200s with 28 lie-flat business class seats are in long-term storage with little chance that they will come back.
Related: United’s premium Boeing 757s, some 767s going to ‘long-term storage’
Delta’s loaded its final MD-88 and MD-90 flights in Cirium/Diio schedules.
Here are its final MD-88 routes on June 2, all depart for Atlanta around 7am. https://t.co/GQ4bq6hMj7 pic.twitter.com/01b0CRPHuE
— Edward Russell (@e_russell) May 10, 2020
One sign that travel is really back will come when major destinations, like Disney World and hotels on the Las Vegas Strip reopen. But, as of yet, there is no official timeline for either.
And even when Disney and Las Vegas casinos reopen, will there be caps on the number of people in the spirit of social distancing? Disney is likely to take a phased approach to reopening its parks and resorts in Orlando that could take months.
“COVID’s effects on air travel are certainly goes to last a couple of years with no quick rebound to 2019 levels,” said IATA chief economist Brian Pearce on Wednesday.
Related: Travelers starting to ‘want to move’ again, say Spirit, JetBlue execs
Featured image by Michael Ciaglo/Getty Images.
Sign-up Successful!
Welcome to The Points Guy!
WELCOME OFFER: 80,000 Points
TPG'S BONUS VALUATION*: $1,650
CARD HIGHLIGHTS: 2X points on all travel and dining, points transferrable to over a dozen travel partners
*Bonus value is an estimated value calculated by TPG and not the card issuer. View our latest valuations here.
- Earn 80,000 bonus points after you spend $4,000 on purchases in the first 3 months from account opening. That's $1,000 when you redeem through Chase Ultimate Rewards®. Plus earn up to $50 in statement credits towards grocery store purchases within your first year of account opening.
- Earn 2X points on dining including eligible delivery services, takeout and dining out and travel. Plus, earn 1 point per dollar spent on all other purchases.
- Get 25% more value when you redeem for airfare, hotels, car rentals and cruises through Chase Ultimate Rewards®. For example, 80,000 points are worth $1,000 toward travel.
- With Pay Yourself Back℠, your points are worth 25% more during the current offer when you redeem them for statement credits against existing purchases in select, rotating categories.
- Get unlimited deliveries with a $0 delivery fee and reduced service fees on eligible orders over $12 for a minimum of one year with DashPass, DoorDash's subscription service. Activate by 12/31/21.
- Count on Trip Cancellation/Interruption Insurance, Auto Rental Collision Damage Waiver, Lost Luggage Insurance and more.
- Get up to $60 back on an eligible Peloton Digital or All-Access Membership through 12/31/2021, and get full access to their workout library through the Peloton app, including cardio, running, strength, yoga, and more. Take classes using a phone, tablet, or TV. No fitness equipment is required.
Disclaimer: The responses below are not provided or commissioned by the bank advertiser. Responses have not been reviewed, approved or otherwise endorsed by the bank advertiser. It is not the bank advertiser’s responsibility to ensure all posts and/or questions are answered.
Editorial Disclaimer: Opinions expressed here are the author’s alone, not those of any bank, credit card issuer, airlines or hotel chain, and have not been reviewed, approved or otherwise endorsed by any of these entities.