News

Here's why this fall is such a good time to book a flight

Sean CudahySenior Aviation Reporter
Sean Cudahy is an aviation reporter covering news about airlines, frequent flyer programs and consumer travel issues.

September 10, 2024 • 7 min read

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Quick summary

Autumn shoulder season brings lower airfare as travel demand drops after summer, with September and October fares trending below last year's levels.
Airlines have increased domestic seat capacity slightly, but some are cutting flights on low-demand days to manage prices.
Booking domestic flights 21 to 52 days before departure often yields the best deals, while international flights are cheapest when booked around 101 days in advance.
European travel remains popular in fall, with increased flight availability and notable fare drops to destinations like France and the U.K.

What to consider

Midweek flights (Tuesdays, Wednesdays, Saturdays) tend to be less crowded and more affordable than weekend options.
Dynamic award pricing means points and miles may stretch further when cash fares are low, though hotel prices remain steady or higher than last year.
For holiday travel, booking Thanksgiving flights by early October and Christmas/New Year’s flights by late October is recommended.

What you'll miss from the article

Detailed guidance on leveraging points, miles and booking strategies to maximize value during the fall travel season.

Generated by AI with support from our editorial team.

It’s the most wonderful time of the year ... for airfare.

Autumn “shoulder season” is here. That means lower flight prices as the crowds taper off in the wake of summer before returning for the busy holiday rush.

The season started in August, as earlier school start dates helped thin out congestion on airport concourses. Transportation Security Agency checkpoints saw about 5% fewer passengers in August than in July — a refreshing bit of (relative) calm after a summer that brought the 10 busiest days ever at U.S. airports.

That trend should continue into the fall months, bringing lower fares with it.

How expensive is airfare right now?

September domestic round-trip airfare is trending about 8% below 2023 levels, according to booking app Hopper. In October, prices are down about 7%, year over year.

This is despite airlines’ best efforts to shift route networks and flight frequencies in hopes of disrupting a downward shift in fares. It's a trend that has hurt carriers’ profitability all year amid a glut of domestic flight offerings.

Between September and November, the total number of seats airlines will offer on domestic flights is up a modest 2.5% over last year, according to data from aviation analytics firm Cirium.

It's up even though several airlines are slashing late-year flying. For example, budget carrier Frontier Airlines is eliminating scores of flights on low-demand days like Tuesdays and Wednesdays.

The carrier predicted that its moves — along with those of Southwest Airlines, JetBlue and others — would help fuel fare increases in the late-summer and early-fall months.

“More likely ... I think we’re going to see prices continue to dip where we are now — and stay low, because it’s the shoulder season, demand could be low," countered Hayley Berg, Hopper’s lead economist.

Here’s what to know if you’re thinking of taking advantage of deals and booking a fall getaway.

How early should I book a flight?

Google Flights is seeing domestic fares at their lowest about 38 days before departure. The ideal booking range is 21 to 52 days before takeoff.

Translation: If you’re thinking of a mid-October getaway to catch fall foliage, now would be a good time to get serious about booking.

JetBlue aircraft at Boston Logan International Airport (BOS). SEAN CUDAHY/THE POINTS GUY

If you’re flying internationally, book as early as possible. The “sweet spot,” these days, is about 101 days ahead of takeoff. However, you’ll want to look at least 50 days in advance for the lowest price.

Fifty days from now puts you in the vicinity of a late-October or early-November trip.

Book a trip for a Tuesday, Wednesday or Saturday

Those midweek days are often the least crowded at airports, airlines consistently say.

Look no further than the almost deafening calm I found on a recent Wednesday morning at Raleigh-Durham International Airport (RDU).

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Flying on a Friday or a Sunday? That’s a very different story.

If you have to fly on a weekend day, Saturday is routinely one of the cheapest — and quietest — days of the entire week.

Hop on the postsummer Europe bandwagon

Though we’ve mostly talked about lower demand during the fall months, airlines have taken notice of a somewhat paradoxical trend: More and more travelers are opting to fly to Europe during the supposed “off-peak months.”

“We are really seeing an extension into September and October, and really into November, that European demand across the board is remaining strong,” Delta Air Lines president Glen Hauenstein told financial analysts in July. “It’s actually a better time to go to Europe in September and October than it is potentially in July and August, when the weather is so hot, and everything is so packed.”

Delta ATL — A Delta Air Lines aircraft at Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport (ATL). SEAN CUDAHY/THE POINTS GUY

Southern Europe popular in fall

This is especially true in southern Europe. This fall, Delta, American Airlines and United Airlines will offer 55% more seats to Italy than they did in 2019, for instance, Cirium data shows.

Airlines across the board will fly with 45% more seats to Portugal this fall than five years ago.

How expensive are Europe flights?

Flight prices to many European cities are trending lower. According to FCM Travel and Corporate Traveler — the flagship business travel divisions of Flight Centre Travel Group — data shows a nearly 20% drop in fares to France in recent months and around an 18% drop in fares to the U.K., year over year.

Overlooking Venice, Italy. SEAN CUDAHY/THE POINTS GUY

Don’t forget about your points and miles

The fact that so many airlines have ditched award charts is, by and large, not a positive development for consumers. It is perhaps among the tactics that have caught the U.S. Department of Transportation's attention.

However, dynamic award pricing can work in your favor when demand is low and prices are low. Points pricing is more closely tied to the algorithmic forces that drive cash prices.

For that reason, certainly consider using your points and miles.

Mile watch: DOT launches formal probe of big airline frequent flyer programs

At the same time, you may want to consider using cash to book a flight and miles to upgrade to a business-class seat on a long-haul flight. Or, consider using your points on a high-value hotel redemption, such as with World of Hyatt. (You can transfer Chase Ultimate Rewards and Bilt Rewards points to Hyatt at a 1:1 rate.)

Hotel prices have remained steady or even higher than last year, of late.

Start looking at the holidays

We’d be remiss if we didn’t mention the looming holiday season, when airport crowds are sure to ramp back up.

Google Flights suggests booking your Thanksgiving flights by early October and your Christmas and New Year’s flights no later than than second half of October.

Related reading:

Editorial disclaimer: Opinions expressed here are the author's alone, not those of any bank, credit card issuer, airline or hotel chain, and have not been reviewed, approved or otherwise endorsed by any of these entities.

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