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What a nearly $16 trillion travel economy means for your future vacation

Aug. 23, 2023
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4 min read
Woman’s hands holding passports & boarding passes of her family while waiting at the check-in counter in the airport
What a nearly $16 trillion travel economy means for your future vacation
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Anyone who has taken a trip this summer can tell the tourism sector is exploding with packed flights, soaring hotel rates and cruise ships buzzing with passengers.

Tourism remains the bright spot even in China, which is facing economic turmoil at the moment.

That kind of demand is expected to go only higher in the coming years. The World Travel & Tourism Council estimates the tourism economy will expand to become a $15.5 trillion industry by 2033, according to the WTTC’s Travel & Tourism Economic Impact 2023 report.

That means an estimated 24 million new travel- and tourism-related jobs added to the sector over the next decade.

It's not all good news, however.

“Despite all this, the year ahead will not be without its challenges. Inflation, economic uncertainty, labour shortages and the climate crisis are limiting factors,” WTTC president and CEO Julia Simpson noted in the report. “And as travel returns to its pre-COVID-19 peak, some businesses are struggling to keep pace with demand. Worldwide, we need strong efforts to increase capacity and connectivity, as well as action from both industry and governments to resolve staffing problems.”

The state of tourism and the high cost of travel

The biggest travel economies aren’t necessarily new faces: The U.S., China, Germany, the U.K. and Japan take the top five positions, respectively. But China is expected to overtake the U.S. in terms of travel economy size in the next decade, Simpson told Bloomberg this week.

That’s unlikely to mean much in terms of your next vacation. What will, however, is that rising demand means hotel rates and airfare will only go higher.

Global leisure travel spending is expected to go from roughly $4 trillion last year to nearly $8 trillion in 2033.

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Higher interest rates around the world mean it isn’t as conducive to build new hotels as it was even just a few years ago. That means the hotel supply out there today is generally expected to remain about the same over the next few years in markets like the U.S., so the CEOs at companies like Hilton anticipate rates can go up simply from the case of there not being enough supply to meet traveler demands.

Bargains are still out there

Hotel supply not keeping up with growing demand doesn’t mean you won’t be able to find a discounted vacation over the next decade, especially in the near term.

A presentation at hotel data provider STR’s recent Hotel Data Conference in Nashville noted hotels in Germany, Thailand, Malaysia and Japan haven’t yet recovered to pre-pandemic performance levels. That could present an opportunity for better hotel rates, as owners look to woo back guests.

There’s even potential opportunity for deals here in the U.S. There are signs of a flat summer in terms of hotel performance, and Americans heading abroad are largely to blame. But there are also fewer inbound travelers from abroad.

The same STR presentation noted there are about 1 million fewer international visitors to the U.S. each month this summer compared to 2019, while there are 200,000 more Americans heading abroad each month compared to pre-pandemic.

Further, Expedia indicates several fall travel deals out there. Offseason travel isn’t a new concept for those looking for bargains, but it’s something to consider even more in the years to come, considering swelling demand in peak travel periods like the summer.

Expedia reports airfare is down 20% to cities like Denver, Chicago, Tokyo and Florence, Italy, compared to summer prices. Beach destinations like the Outer Banks of North Carolina; Myrtle Beach, South Carolina; and Panama City Beach, Florida, have Vrbo vacation rentals priced at 25% below their summer rates.

Keep in mind: The offseason travel option isn’t for everyone, especially families who plan their vacations around school schedules.

The Expedia report notes that 70% of couples with double income and no kids — sometimes known as “DINKs” — prefer traveling in the fall at times when occupancy rates are lower in popular cities like London, Paris and New York City.

Related reading:

Featured image by GETTY IMAGES
Editorial disclaimer: Opinions expressed here are the author’s alone, not those of any bank, credit card issuer, airline or hotel chain, and have not been reviewed, approved or otherwise endorsed by any of these entities.

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  • Intro Offer

    As High As 100,000 points. Find Out Your Offer.

  • Annual Fee

    $325

  • Recommended Credit

    Excellent to Good

Why We Chose It

There’s a lot to love about the Amex Gold. It’s a fan favorite thanks to its fantastic bonus-earning rates at restaurants worldwide and at U.S. supermarkets. If you’re hitting the skies soon, you’ll also earn bonus Membership Rewards points on travel. Paired with up to $120 in Uber Cash annually (for U.S. Uber rides or Uber Eats orders, card must be added to Uber app and you can redeem with any Amex card), up to $120 in annual dining statement credits to be used with eligible partners, an up to $84 Dunkin’ credit each year at U.S. Dunkin Donuts and an up to $100 Resy credit annually, there’s no reason that foodies shouldn’t add the Amex Gold to their wallet. These benefits alone are worth more than $400, which offsets the $325 annual fee on the Amex Gold card. Enrollment is required for select benefits. (Partner offer)

Pros

  • 4 points per dollar spent on dining at restaurants worldwide and U.S. supermarkets (on the first $50,000 in purchases per calendar year; then 1 point per dollar spent thereafter and $25,000 in purchases per calendar year; then 1 point per dollar spent thereafter, respectively)
  • 3 points per dollar spent on flights booked directly with the airline or with amextravel.com
  • Packed with credits foodies will enjoy
  • Solid welcome bonus

Cons

  • Not as useful for those living outside the U.S.
  • Some may have trouble using Uber and other dining credits
  • You may be eligible for as high as 100,000 Membership Rewards® Points after you spend $6,000 in eligible purchases on your new Card in your first 6 months of Card Membership. Welcome offers vary and you may not be eligible for an offer. Apply to know if you’re approved and find out your exact welcome offer amount – all with no credit score impact. If you’re approved and choose to accept the Card, your score may be impacted.
  • Earn 4X Membership Rewards® points per dollar spent on purchases at restaurants worldwide, on up to $50,000 in purchases per calendar year, then 1X points for the rest of the year.
  • Earn 4X Membership Rewards® points per dollar spent at US supermarkets, on up to $25,000 in purchases per calendar year, then 1X points for the rest of the year.
  • Earn 3X Membership Rewards® points per dollar spent on flights booked directly with airlines or on AmexTravel.com.
  • Earn 2X Membership Rewards® points per dollar spent on prepaid hotels and other eligible purchases booked on AmexTravel.com.
  • Earn 1X Membership Rewards® point per dollar spent on all other eligible purchases.
  • $120 Uber Cash on Gold: Add your Gold Card to your Uber account and get $10 in Uber Cash each month to use on orders and rides in the U.S. when you select an American Express Card for your transaction. That’s up to $120 Uber Cash annually. Plus, after using your Uber Cash, use your Card to earn 4X Membership Rewards® points for Uber Eats purchases made with restaurants or U.S. supermarkets. Point caps and terms apply.
  • $84 Dunkin' Credit: With the $84 Dunkin' Credit, you can earn up to $7 in monthly statement credits after you enroll and pay with the American Express® Gold Card at U.S. Dunkin' locations. Enrollment is required to receive this benefit.
  • $100 Resy Credit: Get up to $100 in statement credits each calendar year after you pay with the American Express® Gold Card to dine at U.S. Resy restaurants or make other eligible Resy purchases. That's up to $50 in statement credits semi-annually. Enrollment required.
  • $120 Dining Credit: Satisfy your cravings, sweet or savory, with the $120 Dining Credit. Earn up to $10 in statement credits monthly when you pay with the American Express® Gold Card at Grubhub, The Cheesecake Factory, Goldbelly, Wine.com, and Five Guys. Enrollment required.
  • Explore over 1,000 upscale hotels worldwide with The Hotel Collection and receive a $100 credit towards eligible charges* with every booking of two nights or more through AmexTravel.com. *Eligible charges vary by property.
  • No Foreign Transaction Fees.
  • Annual Fee is $325.
  • Terms Apply.