More passengers are paying for first-class seats. That's hurting your upgrade chances

Have you found that elite status upgrades are harder to come by? There's a good reason.

Delta Air Lines recently revealed a head-turning statistic: 15 years ago, just 12% of passengers sitting in its domestic first-class cabin actually paid for their ticket, executives shared.

Today, it's a very different story: Around 75% of first-class passengers pay for their ticket outright, leaving a far smaller pool of seats open for passengers lucky enough to score an upgrade.

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Sure, a Delta executive or investor celebrates this trend. It means droves of customers are paying for the high-dollar seats — a shift that's evolved the front cabin's reputation from a money-loser to a profit engine.

"The biggest loss leaders on the airplane in 2010, and before, were the premium products," Delta president Glen Hauenstein recalled, speaking on the company's Nov. 20 investor day.

"We didn't sell them," Hauenstein said. "We gave them away."

Of course, by "giving them away," Hauenstein largely meant free upgrades for elite status members.

Suffice it to say, those upgrades used to come easier than they do nowadays — a fact known all too well by Medallion members who often find significant company on the upgrade priority list.

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Premium interest widespread

Complimentary upgrades are a universal Delta Medallion elite status perk for domestic flights, but your chances of actually clearing into first class are far higher as you climb the status ladder. Delta also awards confirmable upgrade certificates that can be redeemed at booking or over the phone as a choice perk for higher-level Platinum Medallion and Diamond Medallion members.

To Hauenstein's point, though, the carrier has, increasingly, found improved luck simply selling its premium seats.

A big reason is that Delta has narrowed the gap between the price tag for its coach and first-class seats, Hauenstein said. In 2010, he noted, a Delta first-class seat was roughly 13 times the price of a coach seat.

Today, it varies from one flight to another, but the gap is a lot closer. For instance, Delta First comes in at roughly 2 1/2 times the cost of a main cabin ticket on these January transcontinental itineraries from Raleigh-Durham International Airport (RDU) to Los Angeles International Airport (LAX).

"We brought the separation way down. We've made them much more affordable," Hauenstein told investors. "And guess what — when you make something affordable, people want to buy it."

Read more: Delta to test new fare 'subcategories' in 2025; ponders higher-end Amex credit card

Other airlines report a similar trend

It's not just Delta.

Other major U.S. airlines have told TPG that they've also had better luck, in recent years, at getting customers to actually pay to fly in their higher-end cabins. Part of that luck, no doubt, stems from surging demand for the pricier, more spacious seats that's made customers more willing to simply book the first-class seats from the outset.

Plus, technology improvements at airlines have given carriers new and more creative ways to offer customers strategically priced paid upgrades after they book — but before they fly.

Would you pay $90 to move to first class? How about $70? You've probably seen the offers in your airline's app, at one point or another.

Oftentimes, experts say, airlines are looking to make that higher-end seat just affordable enough that passengers are willing to fork over more money.

"In economics, revenue is price times quantity, so there's that sweet spot where, if you lower price, you increase quantity," said Kerry Tan, a Loyola University Maryland economics professor whose research focuses on the airline industry.

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Tan noted how carriers, since facing financial peril earlier this century, have generally become more strategic at filling seats — including at the front end of the airplane.

"As airlines emerged from bankruptcy [in the early 2000s and 2010s], I saw them going from what I would call 'market share maximizers' to, now, 'profit maximizers,'" Tan said.

Adding premium capacity

In 2024, maximizing profits involves adding more — and more — premium product offerings, U.S. airlines have resoundingly concluded.

Look no further than the wealth of premium seats that Delta and top U.S. competitor United Airlines offer. Together, they have gobbled up much of the industry's profits in recent years.

Or, look to the growing list of low-cost airlines that announced pivots to their own versions of "premium" this year — most notably Frontier Airlines, which on Tuesday announced its version of first-class seats.

And there's reason to believe this inclination among customers to "upgrade" themselves — by paying more — will last, JetBlue president Marty St. George argued. In September, the New York-based carrier announced its own appeal to high-dollar travelers with new airport lounges slated to open in 2025.

"This really started probably 2011, 2012," St. George said, speaking Nov. 12 at the Skift Aviation Forum in Dallas.

"We've got very clear data showing 'buy-up' revenue, and customers who are buying into more premium products, since then," he added.

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Navigating competitive upgrade queues

As much as airlines celebrate customers' willingness to pay for first-class seats, there's a clear downside for elite status members hoping their upgrade will clear.

Consider the overcrowding in elite status tiers — a culprit Delta cited last year in overhauling its SkyMiles program — and the record frequent flyer sign-ups cited by most major U.S. carriers in recent years. It's safe to say this competition for those extra-comfort accommodations at the front of the plane will remain fierce.

Pursue high-level status if it's a priority to you

Bolstering your elite status will certainly still help your chances at an upgrade.

After all, higher status still translates to higher upgrade priority with most carriers. Increasingly, too, you can boost your status not just by flying, but by pouring your daily credit card spending onto a cobranded airline card.

It's a strategy worth considering if elite status with a single airline is your top priority. Just remember, those are dollars you won't be turning into flexible travel rewards that can be transferred to a wider array of airline and hotel programs.

Make the most of the confirmed upgrade

At the same time, make the most of guaranteed upgrade opportunities, such as Delta's upgrade certificates, American's systemwide upgrades (referred to as "SWUs") or JetBlue's Move to Mint certificates that come with high-level Mosaic status.

Pounce on cheap upgrade opportunities

Meanwhile, if you see an enticing cash upgrade opportunity that's of interest, pounce on it. Those offers are often dynamic and may disappear quickly — something I lamented on a recent cross-country flight when I was sitting in coach with a seatmate's elbow digging into my ribcage after turning down an $80 upgrade offer.

Maximize non-upgrade perks

And finally, in lieu of upgrades, consider the more guaranteed perks that airline status or credit cards offer, such as access to extra-legroom seats or free checked bags.

While they may not offer the same comfort as a first-class seat, they can be major money-savers — and help offset that credit card annual fee in the process.

Related reading:

• Delta SkyMiles: Your complete guide to earning, redeeming and elite status
• Best Delta credit cards
• Maximize your airfare: The best credit cards for booking flights
• The best credit cards to reach elite status
• Delta basic economy: What you need to know about bags, seats, boarding and more