Sean Cudahy is an aviation reporter covering news about airlines, frequent flyer programs and consumer travel issues.
March 10, 2026 • 8 min read
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Quick summary
Airfare is expected to rise soon due to higher oil prices linked to Middle East tensions impacting global supply routes.
Experts recommend booking summer flights now, especially for June and July, to avoid imminent price hikes.
August typically offers lower fares compared to early summer, with certain days in August and early September identified as the cheapest to fly.
Flexible booking options and using points or miles can help travelers manage costs and adapt to changing plans.
What to consider
Dynamic award pricing means high cash fares often translate to higher points or miles requirements for flights.
Booking non-basic fares on most U.S. airlines allows for changes or cancellations without extra fees, often resulting in travel credit.
Consult TPG’s points and miles valuations to ensure you’re getting good value before redeeming rewards.
What you'll miss from the article
Detailed guidance on the best dates to fly for savings, plus strategies for maximizing flexibility and value when booking summer airfare.
Generated by AI with support from our editorial team.
If you’re planning to fly this summer, don’t delay in booking your flight.
Airfare could rise sharply in the coming days and weeks amid fallout from the conflict in the Middle East — and it could be bad news for consumers hoping to lock in flight reservations for the coming months.
“If you’re buying for three or four months down the road, I would lock it in and buy now,” said Rob Handfield, a global supply chain expert at North Carolina State University.
Higher oil prices equal higher fares
Behind these new airfare concerns are surging oil prices stemming from snarled trafficthrough the Strait of Hormuz, a critical corridor for oil transport controlled by Iran.
Storage tanks at the Phillips 66 Bayway Refinery in Linden, New Jersey. BING GUAN/BLOOMBERG VIA GETTY IMAGES
Planes, of course, are powered by oil. So when the barrel prices surge, carriers’ jet fuel costs do, too. For travelers, that will almost certainly translate to costlier fares, experts warn.
“I’d expect that airlines are seeking to pass on as much of the higher fuel costs to consumers as soon as possible,” Mike Stengel, partner at aerospace consultancy AeroDynamic Advisory, told TPG Monday.
We’ve seen it before. In 2022, airfare (like gasoline prices) surged in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.And airlines have already hinted that price hikes are coming in this spring; United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby last week told reporters he expected the impact on airfare would “probably start quick” after the run-up in global oil prices.
The only question: How quick are we talking?
“I think we could see it — within a week — prices would go up,” Handfield predicted, noting he just pulled the trigger on booking summer flights himself, expecting a flight booked two weeks from now would cost more than one purchased today. “It’s sure as heck not going to go down."
Newark Liberty International Airport (EWR). LOKMAN VURAL ELIBOL/ANDALOU VIA GETTY IMAGES
TPG's tips for booking summer 2026 flights
Airfare was already on the rise in 2026. According to the most recent Consumer Price Index released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, January fares rose more than 6% month-over-month on a seasonally-adjusted basis.
How should you be thinking about booking flights for the coming months? Here’s our best advice:
Book now for summer, especially June and July
If you’re planning to fly this summer, go ahead and lock in your airfare now. As experts noted, prices could surge any day now. That’s especially true if you’re hoping to fly in June or July, which in recent years have been the busiest and most expensive months of the summer to travel.
What if your plans aren’t set in stone?
Of course, a lot of us still don’t have our summer plans etched in stone. I’d still book those flights if you’re thinking about flying. But leave yourself some flexibility.
Alaska Airlines, Japan Airlines and Qatar aircraft at New York's John F. Kennedy International Airport (JFK). ZHANG FENGGUO/XINHUA VIA GETTY IMAGES
On most U.S. airlines, as long as you don’t book their cheapest “basic” fare, you can change your flight without a fee if your plans change later. And if you need to cancel, you can typically get credit for the full trip to use on a future booking.
This is also where your points and miles can come in handy. With nearly every U.S. carrier, if you book an award flight and need to cancel or rebook later, you can get all your miles and fees refunded.
The idea here: Lock it in now to protect yourself from major price hikes, but leave yourself some wiggle room.
Travel in August to save the most (especially on a Saturday)
The best way to save money on flights in summer 2026 is to fly in August.
In recent years, I’ve reported on how August fares have tumbled compared to June and July, as a growing number of Americans cram their summer trips into the early part of summer — due in large part to schools across the country going back earlier and earlier.
Chicago's O'Hare International Airport (ORD). DANIEL SLIM/AFP VIA GETTY IMAGES
The upshot here is that, when it comes to the travel forecast, August looks a lot like the quieter fall “shoulder season” when crowds thin out and discounts open up.
The cheapest days to fly this summer: According to data from our partners at Points Path, here are the 10 cheapest days to fly (as of now) between Memorial Day weekend and Labor Day 2026.
See if you spot any trends:
Saturday, Aug. 1
Friday, Aug. 14
Wednesday, Aug. 26
Wednesday, Aug. 12
Saturday, Aug. 15
Tuesday, Aug. 18
Saturday, Aug. 8
Friday, Sept. 4 (the Friday of Labor Day weekend)
Friday, Aug. 21
Saturday, Aug. 22
How about using points and miles to save?
Flights too expensive? This is certainly where your stash of credit card points or airline miles can come in handy.
The only word of caution: Because many airlines now use dynamic award pricing, high cash fares often mean steep points prices, too. Before you hand over a huge sum of your hard-earned points, consult resources like TPG’s points and miles valuations to ensure you’re getting a good deal.
Also, consider transferring your credit card points to an airline with less dynamic pricing. For instance, you can transfer Bilt Rewards to Alaska Airlines and Hawaiian Airlines’ Atmos Rewards program, which sets predictable award prices based on a flight’s distance, not complex algorithms. You can use Atmos points to book flights on a wide range of partners, including American Airlines.
Americans have already felt steeper oil prices at the pump. As of Tuesday, the national average for a gallon of gasoline was up 20% from a month ago, according to AAA.
Plus, keep a close eye on your credit card offers. Issuers will occasionally offer discounts or extra bonus points at certain gas stations — but you typically need to activate the offer before you swipe.
By commenting, you agree to our Community Guidelines to help create a positive space for conversation. The responses below are not provided or commissioned by the bank advertiser, our partners, or The Points Guy (“TPG”). They have not been reviewed, approved, or otherwise endorsed by any of these parties. All responses are submitted by individual contributors, and neither the bank advertiser, our partners, nor TPG are responsible for ensuring that all posts and/or questions are answered.
