Which Hawaii Routes Will Southwest Launch?
After months of speculation, Southwest announced overnight Wednesday night its intention to fly to Hawaii. The problem is, the announcement was light on details. The only concrete detail we have is that the airline will "begin selling tickets in 2018 for service to Hawaii." But, first it will have to apply to the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) for Extended-range Twin-engine Operational Performance Standards (ETOPS) before it can fly there.
With so few details, we can only speculate about where Southwest will fly. So, let's speculate.
Where in Hawaii
The Southwest announcement was made via satellite from Honolulu's Waikiki Beach alongside the Governor of Hawaii. With Honolulu being a major tourism destination and an entry point for all the wonderful places, food, culture and activities Hawaii has to offer, we can safely assume that Southwest will fly to Honolulu's airport (HNL). But, where else?
As part of its reporting for the announcement, the Los Angeles Times got an interesting scoop from Southwest's Executive Vice President and Chief Revenue Officer Andrew Watterson: "Southwest will fly... to Kauai, Honolulu and the island of Hawaii."
Aircraft and Range
While only casually mentioning its newest aircraft type in the announcement, surely Southwest will be using its new 737 MAX 8 aircraft for the flights to Hawaii. With a Boeing-listed range of 3,515 nautical miles, the MAX 8 can cover a lot of ground... or water, after the airline gets its ETOPS certification. This kind of mileage theoretically puts Texas easily within range.
Unfortunately, nonstop flights from Dallas Love Field (DAL) to Honolulu (HNL) aren't going to happen with the 737 MAX 8. First, airlines are required to have extra fuel in the tanks in case something goes wrong. As part of ETOPS certification, Southwest will have to carry even more fuel in reserve than a route over land. Also, if weather patterns force the flight to take a longer route or fight stronger winds, no airline wants to wreck its schedule by having to work in a fueling stop along the way. So, airlines never operate at the bounds of the aircraft's theoretical range.
Now, focusing on Hawaii flights, there are strong prevalent winds blowing from Hawaii to the West Coast. This causes longer flight times going from the mainland to Hawaii and shorter flights on the return. For example, American Airlines' DFW-HNL route is scheduled one hour longer going to Hawaii than coming back. This effectively lowers the maximum range further, as a route is only going to be scheduled based on its longest flight.
Combining the effects of winds and ETOPS certification, let's take Norwegian's transatlantic routes as a proxy. Norwegian's longest scheduled transatlantic 737 MAX 8 route is Newburgh (SWF) in the NYC area to Edinburgh (EDI) at 2,804 nautical miles. Let's see how far that takes us, while also overlaying Southwest's crew bases:
Finally, this gives us some front-runners for Southwest's new routes: Oakland (OAK), Las Vegas (LAS) and Phoenix (PHX) to Hawaii. And maybe Southwest might stretch a flight from Denver (DEN) to Hawaii.
What are some other West Coast possibilities? Southwest has a significant presence in the following California airports: Los Angeles (LAX), San Diego (SAN), San Jose (SJC) and Sacramento (SMF).
Next, let's look at the competition on these routes.
Competition
| Routes | Honolulu (HNL) | Kauai (LIH) | Big Island (KOA) |
|---|---|---|---|
Oakland (OAK) | Alaska, Hawaiian | Alaska (3x weekly) | Alaska |
Las Vegas (LAS) | Hawaiian (2-3x daily) | n/a | n/a |
Phoenix (PHX) | American, Hawaiian | American | American |
Denver (DEN)* | United | United | United |
Los Angeles (LAX) | American, Delta, Hawaiian, United, Virgin America | American, Delta, Hawaiian, United | American, Delta, Hawaiian, United |
San Diego (SAN) | Alaska, Hawaiian | Alaska (3x weekly) | Alaska (3-4x weekly) |
San Jose (SJC) | Alaska, Hawaiian | Alaska (4x weekly) | Alaska (3x weekly) |
Sacramento (SMF) | Hawaiian | n/a | n/a |
*DEN is a Southwest crew hub but on the outer reaches of the 737 MAX 8's operational range.
A combination of having a crew base in Las Vegas (LAS), lots of connecting flown and little competition makes the LAS routes look especially tempting for Southwest revenue management. Oakland (OAK) and Phoenix (PHX) are tempting for the same reasons.
With the incredibly crowded market in Los Angeles (LAX) and tight competition for gate space, I can't see Southwest adding many routes from LAX to start with. Southwest already runs about 9 departures per day from each of its 15 LAX gates, making it hard to add many more flights — especially from ETOPS aircraft (which take extra time to turn). Southwest's gates in San Jose (SJC) and San Diego (SAN) are even busier, making it even harder to fit in flights.
Looking at competition and gate situation, Southwest flights from California's capital Sacramento (SMF) to the Hawaiian capital of Honolulu (HNL) could make sense. But, it'd be interesting to see if there's much demand on this market to justify adding the route.
Results of our speculation
With nothing firm to work off of besides Southwest's mention of "Kauai, Honolulu and the island of Hawaii," let's conclude our speculation with guesses where Southwest will launch routes. If I had to guess about the first eight routes, I'd pick:
- Oakland (OAK): Honolulu (HNL), Kauai (LIH)
- Las Vegas (LAS): Honolulu (HNL), Kona (KOA)
- Phoenix (PHX): Kauai (LIH), Kona (KOA)
- Los Angeles (LAX): Honolulu (HNL)
- Sacramento (SMF): Honolulu (HNL)
But, of course, we won't know anything for sure until the airline makes its formal route announcements. In the meantime, know that Southwest will soon be flying to the Hawaiian islands. Time to work towards earning the Companion Pass!
Which routes do you think Southwest will launch to Hawaii?
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There’s a lot to love about the Amex Gold. It’s a fan favorite thanks to its fantastic bonus-earning rates at restaurants worldwide and at U.S. supermarkets. If you’re hitting the skies soon, you’ll also earn bonus Membership Rewards points on travel. Paired with up to $120 in Uber Cash annually (for U.S. Uber rides or Uber Eats orders, card must be added to Uber app and you can redeem with any Amex card), up to $120 in annual dining statement credits to be used with eligible partners, an up to $84 Dunkin’ credit each year at U.S. Dunkin Donuts and an up to $100 Resy credit annually, there’s no reason that foodies shouldn’t add the Amex Gold to their wallet. These benefits alone are worth more than $400, which offsets the $325 annual fee on the Amex Gold card. Enrollment is required for select benefits. (Partner offer)Pros
- 4 points per dollar spent on dining at restaurants worldwide and U.S. supermarkets (on the first $50,000 in purchases per calendar year; then 1 point per dollar spent thereafter and $25,000 in purchases per calendar year; then 1 point per dollar spent thereafter, respectively)
- 3 points per dollar spent on flights booked directly with the airline or with amextravel.com
- Packed with credits foodies will enjoy
- Solid welcome bonus
Cons
- Not as useful for those living outside the U.S.
- Some may have trouble using Uber and other dining credits
- You may be eligible for as high as 100,000 Membership Rewards® Points after you spend $6,000 in eligible purchases on your new Card in your first 6 months of Card Membership. Welcome offers vary and you may not be eligible for an offer. Apply to know if you’re approved and find out your exact welcome offer amount – all with no credit score impact. If you’re approved and choose to accept the Card, your score may be impacted.
- Earn 4X Membership Rewards® points per dollar spent on purchases at restaurants worldwide, on up to $50,000 in purchases per calendar year, then 1X points for the rest of the year.
- Earn 4X Membership Rewards® points per dollar spent at US supermarkets, on up to $25,000 in purchases per calendar year, then 1X points for the rest of the year.
- Earn 3X Membership Rewards® points per dollar spent on flights booked directly with airlines or on AmexTravel.com.
- Earn 2X Membership Rewards® points per dollar spent on prepaid hotels and other eligible purchases booked on AmexTravel.com.
- Earn 1X Membership Rewards® point per dollar spent on all other eligible purchases.
- $120 Uber Cash on Gold: Add your Gold Card to your Uber account and get $10 in Uber Cash each month to use on orders and rides in the U.S. when you select an American Express Card for your transaction. That’s up to $120 Uber Cash annually. Plus, after using your Uber Cash, use your Card to earn 4X Membership Rewards® points for Uber Eats purchases made with restaurants or U.S. supermarkets. Point caps and terms apply.
- $84 Dunkin' Credit: With the $84 Dunkin' Credit, you can earn up to $7 in monthly statement credits after you enroll and pay with the American Express® Gold Card at U.S. Dunkin' locations. Enrollment is required to receive this benefit.
- $100 Resy Credit: Get up to $100 in statement credits each calendar year after you pay with the American Express® Gold Card to dine at U.S. Resy restaurants or make other eligible Resy purchases. That's up to $50 in statement credits semi-annually. Enrollment required.
- $120 Dining Credit: Satisfy your cravings, sweet or savory, with the $120 Dining Credit. Earn up to $10 in statement credits monthly when you pay with the American Express® Gold Card at Grubhub, The Cheesecake Factory, Goldbelly, Wine.com, and Five Guys. Enrollment required.
- Explore over 1,000 upscale hotels worldwide with The Hotel Collection and receive a $100 credit towards eligible charges* with every booking of two nights or more through AmexTravel.com. *Eligible charges vary by property.
- No Foreign Transaction Fees.
- Annual Fee is $325.
- Terms Apply.