New polling suggests many Americans will travel more in 2025, but could economic headwinds change that?
You've no doubt seen the headlines: The Federal Reserve continues to raise concerns about the health of the economy, and we keep seeing steep declines on Wall Street. American Airlines, Delta Air Lines and Southwest Airlines have all warned that revenue in the first few months of the year was weaker than expected. We'd also expect an increased fear of flying, as we flagged in a recent survey, to do the industry no favors.
Conventional wisdom would hold that travel is one of the first things to get cut during economic downturns, since it's a discretionary expense. But the numbers so far don't bear that out. Despite all the received wisdom, screenings at Transportation Security Administration checkpoints for the first three months of the year simply are not showing steep declines in passenger traffic. After years of strong year-over-year growth, screening traffic is basically flat this year — but while travel is down, it's not the cataclysmic fall some might predict.
Similarly, recent polling commissioned by The Points Guy from The Harris Poll doesn't show any sort of decline — in fact, many Americans plan to travel more this year, according to our findings. But can this hold up through a turbulent economic forecast?
Most Americans are planning to travel the same or more than last year
The new Harris Poll survey found that more than 3 in 4 Americans (76%) plan to travel in 2025. More than 7 in 10 (71%) intend to travel domestically, while 29% plan to travel internationally.
In fact, just over one-third of Americans (35%) say they plan to travel more in 2025 than they did last year, while 43% plan to travel about the same, and just 8% expect to travel less than in 2024.
Of course, that could change if we really do enter a recession — so we'll likely commission another survey as we get a little further into the year.
Overall, The Harris Poll survey suggests men are slightly more likely than women to travel this year. When it comes to age groups, Gen Zers (ages 18-28) are less likely to travel domestically this year than millennials (ages 29-44), Gen Xers (ages 45-60) and baby boomers (ages 61-79).
Where are we going in 2025?
When it comes to international travel specifically, according to The Harris Poll, Gen Zers and millennials are more likely than Gen Xers and baby boomers to plan international travel in 2025 (39% and 33% versus 26% and 22%, respectively).
Among those who plan on traveling internationally this year, more than half (53%) say they will go to Europe, 30% say they will visit Canada or the Caribbean, and 1 in 4 say they will travel to Asia, South or Central America, or Mexico.
Shared experiences will be an important trend again this year
As we discovered in our 2025 Travel Trends report, shared experiences remain a key driver of travel. Event travel will remain a big trend in 2025, even as megatours starring Beyoncé and Taylor Swift ended last year.
Two in five Americans (40%) traveled for an event (such as a concert or sporting event) in 2024, and 40% plan to do the same this year (though obviously not all the same people).
There are some gender and age gaps in the polling, though:
- Men are more likely than women to say they traveled for an event in 2024 (45% versus 36%).
- Gen Zers, millennials and Gen Xers are all more likely than baby boomers to say they traveled for an event in 2024 (47%, 54% and 40% versus 24%).
- Men are more likely than women to plan to travel for an event in 2025 (43% versus 37%).
- Millennials are the most likely generation to plan to travel for an event in 2025 (54% versus 44%, 40% and 23%).
- Gen Zers, millennials and Gen Xers are all more likely than baby boomers to plan to travel for an event in 2025 (44%, 54% and 40% versus 23%).
Related: Need to know: The 6 top travel trends for 2025
Another theme we found in the TPG Travel Trends report was that people are spending more on travel than they used to. That tracked with findings in The Harris Poll, which found that more than half of Americans (51%) say they will spend more on travel in 2025 than they have in years past. The same gender and generational differences showed up here, too:
- Men are more likely than women to say they will spend more on travel in 2025 than they have in years past (56% versus 47%).
- Gen Zers, millennials and Gen Xers are all more likely than baby boomers to say they will spend more on travel in 2025 than they have in years past (52%, 59% and 51% versus 43%).
Why any slowdown in travel bookings could be good news for prices
As I mentioned, there are some early signs that despite our findings, real demand has fallen for flights so far in 2025. But that's not necessarily bad news from a passenger's point of view. In fact, if you're one of the 35% of Americans who plan to travel more this year, this could work to your advantage.
A recent report from travel data company OAG suggests airlines are still adding capacity (more flights) within the U.S. and to places like Europe, saying, "Despite a backdrop of supply chain problems and some economic uncertainty, total airline capacity (both domestic and international) in North America is up 2% this summer vs summer 2024."
According to Cirium, another aviation data company, the number of seats to Europe from the U.S. this summer is up 3.9% year-over-year.
Another potential benefit for consumers? Airlines pivoting to dynamic pricing is usually bad news for flyers — but if there is less demand, points and miles redemptions could actually get cheaper. Increased capacity and potentially reduced demand could be a recipe for reduced fares.
Indeed, we're already seeing plenty of deal alerts for flights to Europe this summer for under $500. Just one example? The deal alert service Going just reported on a deal to Venice, Italy, on Delta Air Lines for under $500.
If we truly see a reduction in demand, deals like that could become plentiful.
Related reading:
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Survey method: This survey was conducted online within the United States by The Harris Poll on behalf of The Points Guy from Feb. 24-26, 2025, among 2,077 adults ages 18-plus. The sampling precision of Harris online polls is measured by using a Bayesian credible interval. For this study, the sample data is accurate to within plus or minus 2.5 percentage points using a 95% confidence level.
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