Holiday airfares are about to start climbing; now is the time to book
There's good news for Americans weary from high airfares: Prices are finally coming down.
As the overall "revenge travel" trend begins to cool — and the strongest demand turns toward long-haul destinations — prices for domestic travel are beginning to decrease. This offers a degree of relief ahead of the holiday season.
The bad news: Prices are still high, historically speaking.
Data provided by Airlines Reporting Corporation shows that the average fare paid so far this year for travel during the holiday period is $415 — down roughly 9% from 2022's all-time high average of $455.
Still, prices are up about 8% from 2019, the last period before the pandemic, when fares averaged $385. That average represents all travel, including international.
This year's decrease is even sharper when domestic fares are considered separately; fares went down 12% to 14% from last year at an average of $268 for Thanksgiving and $400 for Christmas and New Year's, according to travel booking and data service Hopper.
There's also a split between Thanksgiving and Christmas compared to before the pandemic, according to Hopper: While domestic Thanksgiving fares are down 7% from 2019 levels, Christmas travel prices are up 29% compared to the last pre-pandemic year.
Nevertheless, the overall decrease in average airfares compared to last year represents a relief in one of the consumer spending categories with the highest inflation rate, based on Consumer Pricing Index data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
It also serves as a timely reminder for those planning to travel for the holidays that now is the time to book.
How to get in: Best credit cards for airport lounge access
Tickets for holiday travel tend to be cheapest when purchased before Oct. 14, according to Hopper.
That analysis aligns with trends that ARC has spotted over recent years; tickets, on average, were 2% more expensive if purchased in October or November than in September.
An interesting exception to this rule came last year: Holiday fares were 4% cheaper when booked in October or November compared to September.
The reason, according to ARC, is that airfare reached record highs in the summer of 2022 amid a near-insatiable surge in travel demand. Because of that, fares remained elevated in September, which (like most of October) is considered part of the summer travel season by the International Air Transport Association.
When to fly for the holidays
If you can be somewhat flexible on your travel days, it's possible to save more on holiday flights, Hopper says.
For Thanksgiving, the best option is to depart a week ahead of time or at least earlier in the week, according to Hopper.
Flying on Thursday, Nov. 16, or Monday, Nov. 20, means you could save up to 20% on your outbound fare. Returning on Black Friday or Monday, Nov. 27, is the best bet.
Travelers who stay for the weekend and head home on Sunday, Nov. 26, can expect to pay up to 40% more for those flights.
For Christmas, traveling on Tuesday, Dec. 19, the Sunday of Christmas Eve, or Christmas Monday is the best way to find the cheapest flights. You can save up to 26%.
Friday, Dec. 22, will likely have the highest fares, Hopper says, with travelers looking to make a long weekend out of the holiday.
To save on the return flight, Hopper suggests avoiding the two days after Christmas and flying on Thursday, Dec. 28 instead. That's the only sweet spot in the post-holiday schedule. As you get closer to the weekend, fares will begin to rise again ahead of New Year's Eve, Hopper says.
Despite the high demand, it's also possible to find solid points and miles redemption rates, so it's always worth checking both cash and miles pricing to see which is the best option.
Related reading:
TPG featured card
at American Express's secure site
Terms & restrictions apply. See rates & fees.
| 4X | Earn 4X Membership Rewards® points per dollar spent on purchases at restaurants worldwide, on up to $50,000 in purchases per calendar year, then 1X points for the rest of the year. |
| 4X | Earn 4X Membership Rewards® points per dollar spent at US supermarkets, on up to $25,000 in purchases per calendar year, then 1X points for the rest of the year. |
| 5X | New! Earn 5X Membership Rewards® points on prepaid hotel stays booked through AmexTravel.com or the Amex Travel App. |
| 3X | Earn 3X Membership Rewards® points on flights booked through AmexTravel.com, the Amex Travel App, or purchased directly from airlines. |
| 2X | Earn 2X Membership Rewards® points on prepaid car rentals booked through AmexTravel.com or the Amex Travel App and cruises booked and paid through AmexTravel.com. |
| 1X | Earn 1X Membership Rewards® point per dollar spent on all other eligible purchases. |
Pros
- Valuable dining and food-related credits
- Flexible rewards with airline and hotel transfer partners
- Multiple travel and purchase protections
- No foreign transaction fees
- Access to Amex Offers for additional savings (enrollment required)
Cons
- Not as useful for those living outside the U.S.
- Some may have trouble using Uber and other dining credits
- You may be eligible for as high as 100,000 Membership Rewards® Points after you spend $8,000 in eligible purchases on your new Card in your first 6 months of Card Membership. Welcome offers vary and you may not be eligible for an offer. Apply to know if you’re approved and find out your exact welcome offer amount – all with no credit score impact. If you’re approved and choose to accept the Card, your score may be impacted.
- Earn 4X Membership Rewards® points per dollar spent on purchases at restaurants worldwide, on up to $50,000 in purchases per calendar year, then 1X points for the rest of the year.
- Earn 4X Membership Rewards® points per dollar spent at US supermarkets, on up to $25,000 in purchases per calendar year, then 1X points for the rest of the year.
- New! Earn 5X Membership Rewards® points on prepaid hotel stays booked through AmexTravel.com or the Amex Travel App.
- Earn 3X Membership Rewards® points on flights booked through AmexTravel.com, the Amex Travel App, or purchased directly from airlines.
- Earn 2X Membership Rewards® points on prepaid car rentals booked through AmexTravel.com or the Amex Travel App and cruises booked and paid through AmexTravel.com.
- Earn 1X Membership Rewards® point per dollar spent on all other eligible purchases.
- Pay It® lets you tap in the American Express® App to quickly pay for small purchase amounts throughout the month and still earn rewards the way you usually do. Plan It® gives you the option to split up big purchases into equal monthly payments with a fixed fee. You’ll know upfront exactly how much you’ll pay.
- Updated! $120 Dining Credit: Earn up to a total of $10 in statement credits monthly when you pay with the Gold Card at Grubhub (including Seamless), Buffalo Wild Wings, Five Guys, The Cheesecake Factory, and Wonder. This can be an annual savings of up to $120. Enrollment required.
- $100 Resy Credit: Get up to $100 in statement credits each calendar year at over 10,000 qualifying U.S. Resy restaurants after you pay for eligible purchases with the American Express® Gold Card. That’s up to $50 in statement credits semi-annually. Enrollment required.
- $84 Dunkin' Credit: Earn up to $7 in monthly statement credits after you pay with the American Express® Gold Card at U.S. Dunkin’ locations. Enrollment required.
- $120 Uber Cash on Gold: Enjoy up to $120 in Uber Cash annually with your Gold Card. Just add your Card to your Uber account and you'll get $10 in Uber Cash each month to use on orders and rides in the U.S. when you select an Amex Card for your transaction.
- New! As an American Express® Gold Card Member, you can enjoy complimentary Hertz Five Star® Status. Enjoy benefits like skipping the counter at select locations, adding an additional driver at no additional cost*, and vehicle upgrades**. Benefit enrollment and Hertz Gold+ registration are required. *Additional drivers must meet standard rental qualifications and must be a spouse or domestic partner to qualify as complimentary. Other additional drivers subject to fees. **Benefits are subject to availability and vary by location. Additional Hertz program Terms and Conditions including age restrictions apply.
- Take advantage of a $100 credit towards eligible charges* at over 1,300 upscale hotels worldwide when you book The Hotel Collection through AmexTravel.com or the Amex Travel App **. *Eligible charges vary by property. **The Hotel Collection requires a two-night minimum stay.
- Book your travel through the Amex Travel App with added peace of mind – backed by American Express® service and support. Only for American Express® Card Members.
- Whenever you need us, we're here. Our Member Services team will ensure you are taken care of. From lost Card replacement to statement questions, we are available to help 24/7.
- No Foreign Transaction Fees.
- Annual Fee is $325.
- Terms Apply.