Holiday airfares are about to start climbing; now is the time to book
There's good news for Americans weary from high airfares: Prices are finally coming down.
As the overall "revenge travel" trend begins to cool — and the strongest demand turns toward long-haul destinations — prices for domestic travel are beginning to decrease. This offers a degree of relief ahead of the holiday season.
The bad news: Prices are still high, historically speaking.
Data provided by Airlines Reporting Corporation shows that the average fare paid so far this year for travel during the holiday period is $415 — down roughly 9% from 2022's all-time high average of $455.
Still, prices are up about 8% from 2019, the last period before the pandemic, when fares averaged $385. That average represents all travel, including international.
This year's decrease is even sharper when domestic fares are considered separately; fares went down 12% to 14% from last year at an average of $268 for Thanksgiving and $400 for Christmas and New Year's, according to travel booking and data service Hopper.
There's also a split between Thanksgiving and Christmas compared to before the pandemic, according to Hopper: While domestic Thanksgiving fares are down 7% from 2019 levels, Christmas travel prices are up 29% compared to the last pre-pandemic year.
Nevertheless, the overall decrease in average airfares compared to last year represents a relief in one of the consumer spending categories with the highest inflation rate, based on Consumer Pricing Index data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
It also serves as a timely reminder for those planning to travel for the holidays that now is the time to book.
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Tickets for holiday travel tend to be cheapest when purchased before Oct. 14, according to Hopper.
That analysis aligns with trends that ARC has spotted over recent years; tickets, on average, were 2% more expensive if purchased in October or November than in September.
An interesting exception to this rule came last year: Holiday fares were 4% cheaper when booked in October or November compared to September.
The reason, according to ARC, is that airfare reached record highs in the summer of 2022 amid a near-insatiable surge in travel demand. Because of that, fares remained elevated in September, which (like most of October) is considered part of the summer travel season by the International Air Transport Association.
When to fly for the holidays
If you can be somewhat flexible on your travel days, it's possible to save more on holiday flights, Hopper says.
For Thanksgiving, the best option is to depart a week ahead of time or at least earlier in the week, according to Hopper.
Flying on Thursday, Nov. 16, or Monday, Nov. 20, means you could save up to 20% on your outbound fare. Returning on Black Friday or Monday, Nov. 27, is the best bet.
Travelers who stay for the weekend and head home on Sunday, Nov. 26, can expect to pay up to 40% more for those flights.
For Christmas, traveling on Tuesday, Dec. 19, the Sunday of Christmas Eve, or Christmas Monday is the best way to find the cheapest flights. You can save up to 26%.
Friday, Dec. 22, will likely have the highest fares, Hopper says, with travelers looking to make a long weekend out of the holiday.
To save on the return flight, Hopper suggests avoiding the two days after Christmas and flying on Thursday, Dec. 28 instead. That's the only sweet spot in the post-holiday schedule. As you get closer to the weekend, fares will begin to rise again ahead of New Year's Eve, Hopper says.
Despite the high demand, it's also possible to find solid points and miles redemption rates, so it's always worth checking both cash and miles pricing to see which is the best option.
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There’s a lot to love about the Amex Gold. It’s a fan favorite thanks to its fantastic bonus-earning rates at restaurants worldwide and at U.S. supermarkets. If you’re hitting the skies soon, you’ll also earn bonus Membership Rewards points on travel. Paired with up to $120 in Uber Cash annually (for U.S. Uber rides or Uber Eats orders, card must be added to Uber app and you can redeem with any Amex card), up to $120 in annual dining statement credits to be used with eligible partners, an up to $84 Dunkin’ credit each year at U.S. Dunkin Donuts and an up to $100 Resy credit annually, there’s no reason that foodies shouldn’t add the Amex Gold to their wallet. These benefits alone are worth more than $400, which offsets the $325 annual fee on the Amex Gold card. Enrollment is required for select benefits. (Partner offer)Pros
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- You may be eligible for as high as 100,000 Membership Rewards® Points after you spend $6,000 in eligible purchases on your new Card in your first 6 months of Card Membership. Welcome offers vary and you may not be eligible for an offer. Apply to know if you’re approved and find out your exact welcome offer amount – all with no credit score impact. If you’re approved and choose to accept the Card, your score may be impacted.
- Earn 4X Membership Rewards® points per dollar spent on purchases at restaurants worldwide, on up to $50,000 in purchases per calendar year, then 1X points for the rest of the year.
- Earn 4X Membership Rewards® points per dollar spent at US supermarkets, on up to $25,000 in purchases per calendar year, then 1X points for the rest of the year.
- Earn 3X Membership Rewards® points per dollar spent on flights booked directly with airlines or on AmexTravel.com.
- Earn 2X Membership Rewards® points per dollar spent on prepaid hotels and other eligible purchases booked on AmexTravel.com.
- Earn 1X Membership Rewards® point per dollar spent on all other eligible purchases.
- $120 Uber Cash on Gold: Add your Gold Card to your Uber account and get $10 in Uber Cash each month to use on orders and rides in the U.S. when you select an American Express Card for your transaction. That’s up to $120 Uber Cash annually. Plus, after using your Uber Cash, use your Card to earn 4X Membership Rewards® points for Uber Eats purchases made with restaurants or U.S. supermarkets. Point caps and terms apply.
- $84 Dunkin' Credit: With the $84 Dunkin' Credit, you can earn up to $7 in monthly statement credits after you enroll and pay with the American Express® Gold Card at U.S. Dunkin' locations. Enrollment is required to receive this benefit.
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- Annual Fee is $325.
- Terms Apply.
Rewards Rate
| 4X | Earn 4X Membership Rewards® points per dollar spent on purchases at restaurants worldwide, on up to $50,000 in purchases per calendar year, then 1X points for the rest of the year. |
| 4X | Earn 4X Membership Rewards® points per dollar spent at US supermarkets, on up to $25,000 in purchases per calendar year, then 1X points for the rest of the year. |
| 3X | Earn 3X Membership Rewards® points per dollar spent on flights booked directly with airlines or on AmexTravel.com. |
| 2X | Earn 2X Membership Rewards® points per dollar spent on prepaid hotels and other eligible purchases booked on AmexTravel.com. |
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Intro Offer
You may be eligible for as high as 100,000 Membership Rewards® Points after spending $6,000 in eligible purchases on your new Card in your first 6 months of Membership. Welcome offers vary and you may not be eligible for an offer.As High As 100,000 points. Find Out Your Offer.Annual Fee
$325Recommended Credit
Credit ranges are a variation of FICO® Score 8, one of many types of credit scores lenders may use when considering your credit card application.Excellent to Good
Why We Chose It
There’s a lot to love about the Amex Gold. It’s a fan favorite thanks to its fantastic bonus-earning rates at restaurants worldwide and at U.S. supermarkets. If you’re hitting the skies soon, you’ll also earn bonus Membership Rewards points on travel. Paired with up to $120 in Uber Cash annually (for U.S. Uber rides or Uber Eats orders, card must be added to Uber app and you can redeem with any Amex card), up to $120 in annual dining statement credits to be used with eligible partners, an up to $84 Dunkin’ credit each year at U.S. Dunkin Donuts and an up to $100 Resy credit annually, there’s no reason that foodies shouldn’t add the Amex Gold to their wallet. These benefits alone are worth more than $400, which offsets the $325 annual fee on the Amex Gold card. Enrollment is required for select benefits. (Partner offer)Pros
- 4 points per dollar spent on dining at restaurants worldwide and U.S. supermarkets (on the first $50,000 in purchases per calendar year; then 1 point per dollar spent thereafter and $25,000 in purchases per calendar year; then 1 point per dollar spent thereafter, respectively)
- 3 points per dollar spent on flights booked directly with the airline or with amextravel.com
- Packed with credits foodies will enjoy
- Solid welcome bonus
Cons
- Not as useful for those living outside the U.S.
- Some may have trouble using Uber and other dining credits
- You may be eligible for as high as 100,000 Membership Rewards® Points after you spend $6,000 in eligible purchases on your new Card in your first 6 months of Card Membership. Welcome offers vary and you may not be eligible for an offer. Apply to know if you’re approved and find out your exact welcome offer amount – all with no credit score impact. If you’re approved and choose to accept the Card, your score may be impacted.
- Earn 4X Membership Rewards® points per dollar spent on purchases at restaurants worldwide, on up to $50,000 in purchases per calendar year, then 1X points for the rest of the year.
- Earn 4X Membership Rewards® points per dollar spent at US supermarkets, on up to $25,000 in purchases per calendar year, then 1X points for the rest of the year.
- Earn 3X Membership Rewards® points per dollar spent on flights booked directly with airlines or on AmexTravel.com.
- Earn 2X Membership Rewards® points per dollar spent on prepaid hotels and other eligible purchases booked on AmexTravel.com.
- Earn 1X Membership Rewards® point per dollar spent on all other eligible purchases.
- $120 Uber Cash on Gold: Add your Gold Card to your Uber account and get $10 in Uber Cash each month to use on orders and rides in the U.S. when you select an American Express Card for your transaction. That’s up to $120 Uber Cash annually. Plus, after using your Uber Cash, use your Card to earn 4X Membership Rewards® points for Uber Eats purchases made with restaurants or U.S. supermarkets. Point caps and terms apply.
- $84 Dunkin' Credit: With the $84 Dunkin' Credit, you can earn up to $7 in monthly statement credits after you enroll and pay with the American Express® Gold Card at U.S. Dunkin' locations. Enrollment is required to receive this benefit.
- $100 Resy Credit: Get up to $100 in statement credits each calendar year after you pay with the American Express® Gold Card to dine at U.S. Resy restaurants or make other eligible Resy purchases. That's up to $50 in statement credits semi-annually. Enrollment required.
- $120 Dining Credit: Satisfy your cravings, sweet or savory, with the $120 Dining Credit. Earn up to $10 in statement credits monthly when you pay with the American Express® Gold Card at Grubhub, The Cheesecake Factory, Goldbelly, Wine.com, and Five Guys. Enrollment required.
- Explore over 1,000 upscale hotels worldwide with The Hotel Collection and receive a $100 credit towards eligible charges* with every booking of two nights or more through AmexTravel.com. *Eligible charges vary by property.
- No Foreign Transaction Fees.
- Annual Fee is $325.
- Terms Apply.