Airfares may finally drop this fall, but it isn't all good news for travelers

For Americans who have postponed trips due to sky-high airfares this summer, some relief may be on the way — at least for some trips.

Some return of travel demand seasonality is expected this fall, according to airlines. In other words, record-breaking travel demand is expected to subside in the weeks following Labor Day, allowing prices on some routes to drop from their summer highs.

But there are likely to be two big catches for consumers.

First, while the price drops may occur across the board, travelers flying domestically will likely see the greatest benefit, with several airlines noting decreased volume and revenue forecasts for the fall on U.S. flights.

Additionally, price reductions are relative. While prices on domestic and international flights may fall compared to this summer and last year, overall prices are expected to stay well above pre-pandemic levels.

Domestic airfare for September and October is averaging $218 per round-trip ticket, down 15% from 2022 according to Hayley Berg, lead economist at the travel portal Hopper; international flights are averaging $738, up 11% from last year.

Multiple airline executives and other experts have said in recent weeks that it's too soon to make specific assumptions about travel trends during the fourth quarter, or the last three months of the year. This is partly because booking patterns have shifted during the pandemic, and demand could shift as fall approaches. However, projections for the latter part of the third quarter and onward provide some guidance.

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Lower airfare prices than last year — but that isn't saying much

Data provided by the Airlines Reporting Corporation, a travel intelligence firm and ticket processor, shows that average fares to the top 10 domestic destinations for travel between Labor Day and the end of October are mostly down or nearly stable compared to last year — except for Honolulu, which is up 6%.

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However, flights to all of the destinations are significantly more expensive than they were in 2019, the last full year before the pandemic. The fares listed below represent flights booked from within the U.S. between Jan. 1 and July 27 each year.

The changes suggest, at the very least, that the broad pricing power airlines enjoyed on domestic routes over the past two years through this summer may be running out.

That's the sentiment Alaska Airlines CEO Ben Minicucci shared during an appearance on CNBC last week. Minicucci pointed to sky-high international travel demand as the downward driver for domestic fares, even as demand remains strong.

"You're seeing a massive surge in international travel," Minicucci said. "That's having a little bit of a modest impact on domestic fares."

Still, Minicucci noted that airlines retain better pricing power — and have the ability to drive fares higher — than they did before the pandemic.

"Demand domestically is still strong," he added. "Domestic fares are still significantly higher than they were in 2019."

An international bright spot

International fares remain high, and even the "historical seasonality," as cited by American Airlines executive Vasu Raja during the airline's earnings call, is not expected to bring prices back to the ground.

Still, there are two bright spots for travelers looking to keep costs down, according to ARC's data.

Even as round-trip fares from the United States to much of Europe, Asia and the Middle East remain higher than in 2022, the cost of flights to London and Paris — two of the most popular long-haul destinations, both of which were among the early places to reopen during the pandemic — are down compared to last year.

Among these destinations, the biggest increases compared to last year are in Seoul and Hong Kong, where reopenings have led to surging demand. Meanwhile, transatlantic demand remains strong beyond London and Paris; popular summer and fall destinations such as Rome, Barcelona, Athens and Munich remain high compared to last fall.

Like with domestic destinations, fares across the board internationally remain significantly higher than in 2019. Prices to all of the top 10 destinations see double-digit percent increases over pre-pandemic; this excludes Hong Kong, which is only up 4%, possibly reflecting a decrease in overall business travel.

Airlines say overall demand is still strong, even as trends change

Throughout the recent earnings reporting season, airlines insisted demand remains strong, even as some carriers lowered unit revenue projections or cited the loss of pricing power on some trips.

Interestingly, American — which has a strong domestic network but also a large international presence, including disproportionate exposure to London thanks to its joint venture with British Airways — noted that it expects its unit revenues to fall up to 6.5% for the third quarter. This is even as it grows capacity up to 7% and raises its overall revenue projections. The decrease in unit revenues, which can be used as a rough proxy for pricing power, suggests that customers will be paying at least the same amount, or possibly less, for flights overall across American's network.

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Still, shoulder season is not what it used to be. United Airlines president Andrew Nocella told analysts that the airline was extending some of its seasonal summer schedules deeper into fall, with October "setting up to be a stronger month of the year than it was in 2019."

"[Strong demand has] motivated us to extend our seasonal flying to southern Europe well into Q4, which we don't normally do," he said, describing demand to Asia as "going gangbusters."

Nocella suggested that this trend, which seemingly would apply to the other U.S. airlines with large international networks, is likely to remain in place for a while. The carrier can make more money from long-haul flying than from its shorter-haul operation.

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"This cycle for our business will have higher international margins versus domestic, a reversal from pre-pandemic," he said. "We're leaning into the global long-haul environment because we think that's where the revenue is right now."

"The pandemic clearly created a boom in premium leisure demand that we see today," he added.

Even with domestic trailing international, airlines still think they can better capitalize stateside by reconfiguring their business models.

For instance, rather than waiting for business travel to come back in its pre-pandemic form, Southwest is revamping its schedule to follow new travel patterns. It'll lean toward fewer short-haul frequencies between business markets in favor of longer flights to leisure markets, less mid-week flying, and optimized departure and arrival times for vacationers.

"It's clear the travel patterns post-pandemic are not what they were pre-pandemic," Southwest CEO Bob Jordan said. "I expect business to continue to come back, but I think it's going to trail the restoration of leisure here for a while. It's really meant to just match the post-pandemic demand and travel patterns to what we're seeing."

Still, the airline said it expects unit revenue to be up to 7% lower than in 2022 for the third quarter, another indication that even if demand is still strong, airlines' pricing power may be down from its peak.

How to save money on flights this fall

If you're hoping to travel abroad this fall, you can still find some sporadic deals, and there are plenty of opportunities to keep costs down.

Related: When is the best time to book flights for the cheapest airfare?

Be sure to follow TPG for the latest airline deals and guides to finding the cheapest airfare, alongside tips and tricks for maximizing points and miles to lower the cost of your next vacation.

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