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Airfares Have Dropped 15% or More Since January 2015
Feb. 10, 2016
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3 min read
Airfares Have Dropped 15% or More Since January 2015
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Recent data from Hopper and the Bureau of Labor and Statistics reflects news that's surely music to travelers' ears: The drop in oil prices has caused a sharp decrease in airfare.
The airfare modeling and forecasting site Hopper recently reported that the average airfare for January 2016 was 2.53% lower than December, and a staggering 14.2% lower than January 2015. As the icing on the cake, Hopper forecasts that low prices are here to stay for the foreseeable future, since recent global news indicates that there is no near-term rise predicted for crude oil prices.
Meanwhile, the Bureau of Labor and Statistics recently released data that export international airfares — defined as fares paid to US carriers by foreign residents — dropped an astounding 15% in 2015. This is unheard of; the Bureau reported that this is the biggest percentage drop in a calendar year for export fares since 1987, when such statistics started being kept. Import airfares, defined as fares paid to foreign carriers paid by US residents, dropped by 9.9% as well.
The Low-Cost Carrier Effect on Airfares
The “Spirit effect,” a reference to what was once the “Southwest effect,” is very real. Hopper’s analysis of 5,000 domestic nonstop routes shows that the entrance of a low-cost carrier — defined as Spirit, JetBlue and Frontier — caused average airfares to drop by half on aggregate, which in effect caused a 20% decrease in legacy carrier pricing on those routes. That's not to mention the Mint effect — the lower premium transcon prices we're seeing as a result of JetBlue's competitively priced service.
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Spirit and Frontier can really be classified as ultra-low cost-carriers, as they specifically cause the biggest disruption, at times lowering particular routes by 70%! Finally, market demand increased a stunning 60% upon the entrance of low-cost carriers; essentially, lower fares tempt people to travel more. Shell-shocked legacy airlines, in a concession of sorts, are starting to offer basic fares in an attempt to compete in a cloudy environment. The good news is that the overall winners here are consumers.
Maximize Your Airfare Purchases
Even when airfares are low, you should maximize your spending by using a card that gives you bonus points or miles on this category of purchase. For example, the Chase Sapphire Preferred Card earns you 2 Ultimate Rewards points per dollar on all travel purchases, which can later be transferred to a variety of airline and hotel partners. Another great option is the American Express Premier Rewards Gold Card, which offers 3 Membership Rewards points per dollar on airfare purchases with a different set of transfer partners.
Have you found airfare to be cheaper in your personal experience?
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- You may be eligible for as high as 100,000 Membership Rewards® Points after you spend $6,000 in eligible purchases on your new Card in your first 6 months of Card Membership. Welcome offers vary and you may not be eligible for an offer. Apply to know if you’re approved and find out your exact welcome offer amount – all with no credit score impact. If you’re approved and choose to accept the Card, your score may be impacted.
- Earn 4X Membership Rewards® points per dollar spent on purchases at restaurants worldwide, on up to $50,000 in purchases per calendar year, then 1X points for the rest of the year.
- Earn 4X Membership Rewards® points per dollar spent at US supermarkets, on up to $25,000 in purchases per calendar year, then 1X points for the rest of the year.
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- Annual Fee is $325.
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Apply for American Express® Gold Card
at American Express's secure site
Terms & restrictions apply. See rates & fees
Best for dining at restaurants
TPG Editor‘s Rating
Go to reviewCard Rating is based on the opinion of TPG‘s editors and is not influenced by the card issuer.
Rewards Rate
| 4X | Earn 4X Membership Rewards® points per dollar spent on purchases at restaurants worldwide, on up to $50,000 in purchases per calendar year, then 1X points for the rest of the year. |
| 4X | Earn 4X Membership Rewards® points per dollar spent at US supermarkets, on up to $25,000 in purchases per calendar year, then 1X points for the rest of the year. |
| 3X | Earn 3X Membership Rewards® points per dollar spent on flights booked directly with airlines or on AmexTravel.com. |
| 2X | Earn 2X Membership Rewards® points per dollar spent on prepaid hotels and other eligible purchases booked on AmexTravel.com. |
| 1X | Earn 1X Membership Rewards® point per dollar spent on all other eligible purchases. |
Intro Offer
You may be eligible for as high as 100,000 Membership Rewards® Points after spending $6,000 in eligible purchases on your new Card in your first 6 months of Membership. Welcome offers vary and you may not be eligible for an offer.As High As 100,000 points. Find Out Your Offer.Annual Fee
$325Recommended Credit
Credit ranges are a variation of FICO® Score 8, one of many types of credit scores lenders may use when considering your credit card application.Excellent to Good
Why We Chose It
There’s a lot to love about the Amex Gold. It’s a fan favorite thanks to its fantastic bonus-earning rates at restaurants worldwide and at U.S. supermarkets. If you’re hitting the skies soon, you’ll also earn bonus Membership Rewards points on travel. Paired with up to $120 in Uber Cash annually (for U.S. Uber rides or Uber Eats orders, card must be added to Uber app and you can redeem with any Amex card), up to $120 in annual dining statement credits to be used with eligible partners, an up to $84 Dunkin’ credit each year at U.S. Dunkin Donuts and an up to $100 Resy credit annually, there’s no reason that foodies shouldn’t add the Amex Gold to their wallet. These benefits alone are worth more than $400, which offsets the $325 annual fee on the Amex Gold card. Enrollment is required for select benefits. (Partner offer)Pros
- 4 points per dollar spent on dining at restaurants worldwide and U.S. supermarkets (on the first $50,000 in purchases per calendar year; then 1 point per dollar spent thereafter and $25,000 in purchases per calendar year; then 1 point per dollar spent thereafter, respectively)
- 3 points per dollar spent on flights booked directly with the airline or with amextravel.com
- Packed with credits foodies will enjoy
- Solid welcome bonus
Cons
- Not as useful for those living outside the U.S.
- Some may have trouble using Uber and other dining credits
- You may be eligible for as high as 100,000 Membership Rewards® Points after you spend $6,000 in eligible purchases on your new Card in your first 6 months of Card Membership. Welcome offers vary and you may not be eligible for an offer. Apply to know if you’re approved and find out your exact welcome offer amount – all with no credit score impact. If you’re approved and choose to accept the Card, your score may be impacted.
- Earn 4X Membership Rewards® points per dollar spent on purchases at restaurants worldwide, on up to $50,000 in purchases per calendar year, then 1X points for the rest of the year.
- Earn 4X Membership Rewards® points per dollar spent at US supermarkets, on up to $25,000 in purchases per calendar year, then 1X points for the rest of the year.
- Earn 3X Membership Rewards® points per dollar spent on flights booked directly with airlines or on AmexTravel.com.
- Earn 2X Membership Rewards® points per dollar spent on prepaid hotels and other eligible purchases booked on AmexTravel.com.
- Earn 1X Membership Rewards® point per dollar spent on all other eligible purchases.
- $120 Uber Cash on Gold: Add your Gold Card to your Uber account and get $10 in Uber Cash each month to use on orders and rides in the U.S. when you select an American Express Card for your transaction. That’s up to $120 Uber Cash annually. Plus, after using your Uber Cash, use your Card to earn 4X Membership Rewards® points for Uber Eats purchases made with restaurants or U.S. supermarkets. Point caps and terms apply.
- $84 Dunkin' Credit: With the $84 Dunkin' Credit, you can earn up to $7 in monthly statement credits after you enroll and pay with the American Express® Gold Card at U.S. Dunkin' locations. Enrollment is required to receive this benefit.
- $100 Resy Credit: Get up to $100 in statement credits each calendar year after you pay with the American Express® Gold Card to dine at U.S. Resy restaurants or make other eligible Resy purchases. That's up to $50 in statement credits semi-annually. Enrollment required.
- $120 Dining Credit: Satisfy your cravings, sweet or savory, with the $120 Dining Credit. Earn up to $10 in statement credits monthly when you pay with the American Express® Gold Card at Grubhub, The Cheesecake Factory, Goldbelly, Wine.com, and Five Guys. Enrollment required.
- Explore over 1,000 upscale hotels worldwide with The Hotel Collection and receive a $100 credit towards eligible charges* with every booking of two nights or more through AmexTravel.com. *Eligible charges vary by property.
- No Foreign Transaction Fees.
- Annual Fee is $325.
- Terms Apply.