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News
July 4 travel forecast: 'Record-breaking' traveler volumes expected
A classically trained journalist, Caroline Tanner covers news and travel for TPG. She is a dual-journalism graduate of Mizzou and Northwestern.
June 28, 2023 • 7 min read
The cards we feature here are from partners who compensate us when you are approved through our site, and this may impact how or where these products appear. We don't cover all available credit cards, but our analysis, reviews, and opinions are entirely from our editorial team. Terms apply to the offers listed on this page. Please view our advertising policy and product review methodology for more information.Editorial disclaimer: Opinions expressed here are the author's alone, not those of any bank, credit card issuer, airline or hotel chain, and have not been reviewed, approved or otherwise endorsed by any of these entities.
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Quick summary
A record number of Americans are expected to travel for July Fourth, with over 50 million driving and millions flying, according to AAA and TSA projections.
Recent disruptions have caused over 30,000 delayed or canceled flights, especially at major northeastern airports, with recovery expected to take several days.
Travelers may face limited rebooking options and prolonged delays due to high demand and potential weather issues.
Expedited security programs like TSA PreCheck, Global Entry and Clear can help streamline airport experiences, and some credit cards reimburse application fees for these memberships.
What to consider
Some offers for expedited security program fee reimbursements may no longer be available, as noted in the article.
Families can add children under 18 to Clear memberships for free, with additional adults added for a fee.
Weather waivers and real-time flight tracking are recommended for managing disruptions, but rebooking options may be limited during peak travel periods.
What you'll miss from the article
Detailed guidance on leveraging travel protections, backup planning and maximizing expedited security programs during peak travel disruptions.
Generated by AI with support from our editorial team.
Update: Some offers mentioned below are no longer available. View the current offers here.
Americans are expected to travel in a big way for the country's birthday this year.
AAA anticipates a "record-breaking" number of travelers over the July Fourth weekend, and the U.S. Transportation Security Administration says it's prepared for pre-pandemic travel volumes.
Nearly 51 million people to travel by car at least 50 miles from home over the weekend, up 2.4% compared to last year, according to AAA data.
AAA
The busiest travel days are expected to be Thursday and Friday leading into the long weekend. The Federal Aviation Administration anticipates the busiest day at U.S. airports will be Thursday, with more than 52,500 flights scheduled; the TSA estimates it will screen 2.82 million flyers on Friday and nearly 18 million total in the next seven days.
These numbers are similar to AAA's projection of 4.17 million travelers flying over the holiday weekend.
“TSA is staffed and ready for the increasing travel volumes during this holiday travel period with the technologies and resources for improved security effectiveness, efficiency and passenger experience at security checkpoints,” TSA administrator David Pekoske said in a statement.
“With the new pay implementation plan for all TSA employees starting in July ... our increased employee retention has resulted in sufficient staffing levels to meet the increased passenger demand throughout the country. We expect that passenger volumes will continue to grow."
Will U.S. airports recover by this weekend?
But the big question is whether all of these flights will actually take off and operate as scheduled.
Starting last weekend and continuing through today, there have been more than 30,000 delayed or canceled flights in the U.S., with many centered around airports in the northeast. So far, LaGuardia Airport (LGA), Newark Liberty International Airport (EWR), John F. Kennedy International Airport (JFK) and Chicago's O’Hare International Airport (ORD) have been the most impacted airports. However, the effects of delays in the east can be felt through the network, especially among the airlines with the largest presence in those areas.
With this stress test to the network coming up against some of the busiest days of the summer to fly, a real challenge right now is not just the delays and cancelations but the limited opportunities to get rebooked on a different flight in a reasonable amount of time. It's taking days, not hours, for some passengers to get reaccomodated. For example, right now, United has no nonstop economy seats for sale from the NYC area to Miami until Sunday, four days from now.
And with a wet forecast on tap for sections of the northeast this weekend, it's unlikely that things will fully go back to normal and everyone gets where they want to be until deep into the weekend, at the earliest. And depending on the impact of additional weather, it could take longer than that.
Though it may be too late to help with TSA lines for this week, now is the time to enroll in expedited security programs like TSA PreCheck and Clear if you haven't done so already.
For $78, a TSA PreCheck membership allows users to pass through security using a dedicated line for PreCheck users only, in which they do not have to take off their shoes, belt or light jacket, or remove their laptop or liquids from their bag, as passengers in the regular TSA line do. A PreCheck membership is valid for five years. For just $42 more, you can get Global Entry for expedited customs clearance following international travel, which also includes a membership to PreCheck.
Like with TSA PreCheck, Clear users begin the security process in a Clear-only lane, where users are biometrically identified via fingerprint or iris scans, sparing them from having to show their ID anytime during security screening. Users are then taken to the front of the line for the security screening machines; they'll either go to the front of the PreCheck screening line — for those with Clear and PreCheck — or to the front of the normal TSA screening line. An annual Clear membership is $199.
Though each program requires users to submit an application fee, there are several cobranded airline, hotel and other credit cards that reimburse cardholders up to $120 for the application fees associated with Global Entry or TSA PreCheck, including:
The Platinum Card® from American Express
United Explorer Card
Citi® / AAdvantage® Executive World Elite Mastercard® (see rates and fees)
Marriott Bonvoy Brilliant® American Express® Card
Chase Sapphire Reserve
The Business Platinum Card® from American Express
Delta SkyMiles® Platinum American Express Card
Delta SkyMiles® Reserve American Express Card
Southwest Rapid Rewards Performance Business Credit Card
United Club Card
Though not as many, there are also a few credit cards that extend a Clear Plus membership among their benefits, including The Platinum Card from American Express, The Business Platinum Card from American Express, The Centurion Card from American Express and the American Express® Green Card. All Delta SkyMiles cobranded Amex cards and all United U.S. credit cards offer a discounted rate ($159) for Clear.
Children under 18 can go through Clear for free with adult members, and families can add up to three adults to their primary membership for $60 per additional person per year.
The information for the Centurion Card, and Amex Green Card has been collected independently by The Points Guy. The card details on this page have not been reviewed or provided by the card issuer.
Be proactive with your plans and backup plans
Travelers should monitor their flight status by tracking the weather, utilizing the airline's apps, Flight Aware, etc. to stay abreast of real-time flight updates, such as delays or cancellations.
If you'd rather proactively opt for different plans, there are weather waivers available with many airlines. For example, Delta Air Lines currently has a waiver for travelers flying through New York City airports through Wednesday. United currently has one in effect through Thursday for many northeast airports.
Should your flight be affected, know what other airlines have flights available for your desired route in case you need to rebook a last-minute flight. Also, get a sense of how to reach airline customer service, whether by phone, app or Twitter.
It also makes sense to think through if there are reasonable non-air ways to reach your desired destination in the event your flights are impacted as rebooking options will be tough for those with canceled flights.
The Fourth of July travel period is turning out to be a major test for airlines, the FAA and TSA. Airlines are continuing to try and recover from what started as a weekend of delays and cancellations aided by Mother Nature and the FAA as we head into some of the busiest travel days of the summer.
By commenting, you agree to our Community Guidelines to help create a positive space for conversation. The responses below are not provided or commissioned by the bank advertiser, our partners, or The Points Guy (“TPG”). They have not been reviewed, approved, or otherwise endorsed by any of these parties. All responses are submitted by individual contributors, and neither the bank advertiser, our partners, nor TPG are responsible for ensuring that all posts and/or questions are answered.
