Holiday airfare is rising: What to know if you haven’t booked your flights yet

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It's that time of the year. An autumn crispness hits the air, fall foliage starts to appear ... and prices on holiday flights begin to rise.

All things considered, 2024 has been a more consumer-friendly year when it comes to airfare.

This summer, we saw flight deals and redemption options pop up at rates certainly not seen in 2022 or 2023. Airlines added a ton of flights, which fueled fare battles among carriers to fill seats. In turn, this helped customers looking for lower prices.

That trend should help alleviate at least some of the sticker shock on flights this holiday season — although "some" is the key word. After all, record-breaking crowds at airports this summer are likely a precursor for what's to come in a matter of weeks. And higher demand generally fuels higher prices.

Travelers wait in line at San Francisco International Airport (SFO). DAVID PAUL MORRIS/BLOOMBERG VIA GETTY IMAGES

“Thanksgiving and Christmas will always be a more expensive time to fly than, say, February," Scott Keyes, founder and chief flight expert at Going, said. "But I’d expect holiday flights this year to be cheaper than the past two years.”

Here's what you need to know as you prepare to lock in that airfare or mileage redemption for the upcoming 2024 holiday season.

Book holiday flights as soon as possible

Now is the time to book holiday flights if you haven’t already done so. That’s because prices for these flights often rise sharply in the final weeks leading up to the peak travel rush.

What to expect when looking to book Thanksgiving flights

If you're planning to fly for Thanksgiving, you probably want to book within the next few weeks.

Analysts at Google Flights predict the best prices for the Thanksgiving travel rush will be about 45 days before departure.

cloudy day at LGA — A plane leaves the gate area at LaGuardia Airport (LGA) in New York. SEAN CUDAHY/THE POINTS GUY

Thanksgiving is on Nov. 28 this year. So, if you're hoping to depart on Wednesday, Nov. 27, you should book 45 days before that date — Oct. 12.

However, don't worry too much about the exact date: All things considered, most airfare experts I've heard from this fall have preached booking Thanksgiving flights within the early part of October, and we're quickly approaching the middle of the month.

"If you haven’t booked your flights into October and November, at that point you’re having to compromise on price, schedule or, regrettably, both," Keyes said.

Act with particular urgency if you have highly specific itinerary requirements, Google Flights added; many travelers have strict timelines during the short holiday travel blitz that is Thanksgiving.

"Usually, it’s smart to book your travel far in advance, especially if you need to be on a specific flight,” analysts said.

In its holiday forecast, booking app Hopper predicts 2024 domestic Thanksgiving airfare will be roughly in line with 2023 levels and beneath pre-pandemic 2019 prices.

What to expect when looking to book Christmas and New Year’s flights

For Christmas travel, the mantra used to be to book Thanksgiving flights by Halloween, and Christmas flights by Thanksgiving. However, in recent years, airfare experts have increasingly recommended booking all holiday travel as early as possible — that includes both Christmas and New Year's.

In other words, there’s little upside to waiting.

A Delta Air Lines aircraft at Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport (ATL). SEAN CUDAHY/THE POINTS GUY

“If you find flights with a convenient schedule and fares that fit your budget, book them,” Henry Harteveldt, airline industry analyst and president of Atmosphere Research Group, has told TPG in the recent past. “Don’t try to game the system.”

That's generally the prevailing advice.

Historical pricing trends on Google Flights suggest, on average, domestic fares for Christmas flights will be at their lowest about 58 days prior to departure. That's a little less than two months out. So, if you're planning to depart on, say, Dec. 20 for the holidays, it's time to get serious about booking.

For its part, Hopper suggests booking all year-end holiday travel even sooner — by Oct. 14.

While trends and prices differ from one flight to another, you get the idea: Act sooner rather than later, no matter what holiday you're traveling for in 2024.

“By late fall, expect holiday fares to be at the most expensive. Even if you’re outside the primal booking window, remember that procrastinating further is usually a bad strategy," Keyes added.

So, when should you fly? Hopper says two of the cheapest days to fly around this holiday season will be Christmas Eve and New Year's Eve. However, expect the days between Christmas and New Year's Eve to be packed at airports, with a combination of travelers coming home from Christmas and flying to New Year's getaways.

Can you book holiday flights now and change them later?

christmas eve dulles — Travelers check in on Christmas Eve in 2021 at Dulles International Airport (IAD). BLOOMBERG/GETTY IMAGES

Booking all holiday travel at the same time this year may seem daunting from a budgetary standpoint. Not to mention, sometimes holiday plans take a while to solidify.

It raises the question: If you book now and find a cheaper flight later, can you change your trip? Or, if your plans change, can you cancel your flight? By and large, the answer to both is yes — but with some important caveats.

For the four largest U.S. carriers — American Airlines, Delta Air Lines, Southwest Airlines and United Airlines — you can now change your ticket without paying a change fee. Generally, if you find a cheaper flight down the road, you can rebook and at least get airline flight credits for the price difference between the two flights, which you could use on a future trip. You can alternatively opt for a full refund when canceling certain higher-level tickets.

Even some ultra-low-cost airlines have relaxed change and cancellation fee policies in 2024, making it easier to cancel and rebook if you find a lower price down the road.

Keep in mind, though, that ticket flexibility generally applies to full-fare economy tickets or higher-class tickets. Restrictions generally still apply on basic tickets. As always, check your carrier's individual policy.

Check award pricing, but tread carefully

If you have miles saved up, it may make sense to book your flights with miles instead of shelling out cash. Just be especially careful around the holidays to vet whether you’re getting a good redemption for your hard-earned miles.

While the cash prices aren’t appealing for Christmas and New Year’s, the award prices might be even worse. This can be especially true as more airlines have shifted to dynamic award pricing models that remove a layer of predictability from what you pay in points and miles; this makes award pricing more susceptible to the spikes we see in cash prices during peak demand periods.

Using miles for holiday travel

Last week, in a first-of-its-kind holiday report, TPG collaborated with our friends at Points Path to analyze more than 7 million pieces of data. We found the average all-in value of airline miles over the holidays was about 6.47% less than the rest of 2024 at Thanksgiving and about 3.6% less at Christmas.

Alaska Airlines Mileage Plan proved most valuable over the holidays, keeping with a trend seen in our monthly points and miles valuations. However, your Alaska miles still won't go quite as far during the annual seasonal travel rush as they would at other times of the year.

An Alaska Airlines Boeing 737 taxis at Dulles International Airport (IAD). SEAN CUDAHY/THE POINTS GUY

That said, there were a couple of bright spots. Our report found that JetBlue TrueBlue points will actually go farther than usual over the holidays.

And you can still get outsize point-per-cent value on a premium cabin redemption. So if you're hoping for a first-class, business-class or premium cabin seat, that may help you get the most bang for your points — particularly during a time of year when there's little-to-no business travel.

Mileage bookings offer more flexibility, too

There's an added perk to booking award flights for the holidays (or anytime, for that matter) — and that's flexibility.

Most major airline loyalty programs in the U.S. will allow you to cancel a ticket and redeposit miles into your frequent flyer account at no charge.

This can be helpful if your plans change or if you book an award flight and then find a better redemption option.

Don't forget about international programs

Don't just search U.S. loyalty programs.

If you have transferable points from a major credit card issuer, international airline loyalty programs can offer some of the most valuable redemption options. Program options range from Avianca LifeMiles to Air France and KLM's Flying Blue to the Avios currency shared by a host of airlines like British Airways, Iberia, Aer Lingus, Finnair and Qatar.

Consider a hotel redemption instead

This year, even as airfare has seen steady drops overall, hotel prices haven't seen comparable declines, according to Hayley Berg, lead economist at Hopper. For that reason, you'll want any hotel stays factored prominently into your trip budget.

“That hotel stay may end up being as expensive or more expensive than your airfare, so you need to be thinking of that piece of the puzzle," Berg told TPG.

Alternatively, you might consider paying for your airfare out of pocket and using points for a hotel stay. Travelers can find great value in transferring Chase Ultimate Rewards or Bilt Rewards to World of Hyatt, which, unlike its competitors, still sticks to a predictable award chart. (However, we'll warn that finding award space at all can be a challenge at many properties over the holidays.)

Park Hyatt in Mendoza, Argentina. SEAN CUDAHY/THE POINTS GUY

Consult TPG resources

Whatever the redemption, resources like TPG’s points and miles valuations and awards versus cash calculator can be great to help determine whether you’re better off using cash or your miles.

Even a poor value redemption can save you a chunk of money; however, you then won’t have those miles when spring and summer come around and you’re looking to book a vacation.

It’s always worth checking, though, to keep cash in your pocket.

Is it too late to book holiday flights?

Sure, you might have gotten a better deal if you booked your holiday flights in August or September.

But if you’re just now starting to check airfare for Thanksgiving, Christmas and New Year’s and are finding the prices a bit daunting, here are some tricks and tactics to help bring costs down.

Be flexible with your travel dates

If you’re plugging in your destination and travel dates for the holidays and find prices are exorbitant, see if you can be a bit more flexible. While work, school and life don’t always allow for a lot of flexibility, having fewer requirements for your travel needs can help you capture the best deals.

Christmas Day 2021 travelers at Boston Logan International Airport (BOS). BOSTON GLOBE/GETTY IMAGES

For instance, according to Hopper, you'll find significant savings on Thanksgiving travel by departing on the Monday prior to Turkey Day — or earlier. On the way home, aim to travel after the weekend ends, or get a jump start on the return trip by flying on Black Friday. The Sunday after Thanksgiving is often the busiest air travel day of the year, and as a result, it's much more expensive.

Note that if extending your trip means more nights in a hotel, that can quickly eat into whatever you're saving on flights. However, if you're happy to stay with family for a few additional days, it could be a way to save some cash and enjoy a longer getaway at the same time.

Fly on the actual holiday if you can

If your search still doesn’t turn up satisfactory prices for the days surrounding the holiday, you might want to consider flying early on the holiday itself.

It’s not ideal, and we hate to miss precious time with family. However, flight prices will often be lower on the holiday.

I’ve personally found that holiday morning flights can be relatively pleasant, with thinner crowds in the airports compared to the often chaotic days surrounding the major holidays.

Whether this is a realistic option depends, of course, on your family’s particular celebration plans. Still, it’s something to consider if you’re not finding any affordable flights immediately before or after the holiday.

Consider alternative destinations

Another way to skirt high holiday airfares is to go where the prices are lower. If you have to visit a particular city for the holidays and the prices are high, you don’t have a lot of wiggle room.

Consider meeting family in an alternative city instead of traveling to someone’s house or picking an alternative vacation destination around Christmas and New Year’s. Thinking outside the box can allow you to select airfare based on the best prices rather than being at the mercy of prices for a particular city.

To find a more affordable option, use Google Flights to show you airfare prices to places around the country — or the globe — on the dates you want to travel.

Hold a flight when possible

If you’ve found airfare you like but aren’t 100% sure of your plans yet, put a hold on it.

Some airlines will let you put a hold or fare lock on airfare if you find a price and itinerary that will work for your travel needs but are not ready to book just yet. It’s one of my favorite ways to give myself more time to make up my mind.

christmas eve at dca — Christmas Eve 2021 at Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport (DCA). BLOOMBERG

On United, you can pay a small fee to lock in airfare — a few dollars will generally get you a few days — after which you can either purchase the trip or cancel it.

Keep in mind that if the airline doesn’t allow you to hold a flight, federal regulations require the carrier to give you 24 hours to cancel and get a full refund; it’s not a problem if you book your flight and then quickly change your mind.

Once again, if you find a better price later on, most airlines will let you cancel and switch to a new trip with no penalty (on domestic trips, at least) — provided you didn't book a basic economy fare.

Use Capital One Travel’s price protection feature

Another tool to use when shopping for holiday airfare with travel credit cards like the Capital One Venture X Rewards Credit Card is the Capital One free price protection feature.

With this feature, you can leverage Capital One’s relationship with Hopper; the site’s airfare algorithms will tell you whether to book now or wait for prices to drop. This can make you eligible for a credit in the event the price unexpectedly drops.

If the price drops below a certain threshold, you may be eligible for a refund for the difference in the form of a travel credit. (Note: Capital One caps the credit at a maximum of $50.)

A handful of other booking sites have similar concepts. For example, Google Flights has piloted a price guarantee feature on a select number of itineraries (a very select number — don’t assume your trip is eligible without checking). For certain book-through-Google trips, if the price drops by at least $5 after you book, you may be eligible for a refund of the difference, up to $500 per calendar year.

Bottom line

If you’re thinking of flying for Thanksgiving, Christmas or New Year’s, act fast.

You may have waited until the crisp fall air arrived to start planning your holiday travel, but some decent options are still available. Know, though, that if you want to avoid the worst fares, booking all your holiday travel in the coming days will be your best bet to save money.

While you’re at it, remember to book flexible car rentals and hotel reservations, if needed.

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