How much are Marriott Bonvoy points worth 1 year after removing award charts?
About a year ago, Marriott Bonvoy scrapped its eight award categories and moved to dynamic pricing. Instead of award categories (which had a range for the number of points you'd have to use for a night), dynamic pricing gives the hotel megachain the ability to charge at its discretion for award stays.
Since other travel providers have often used dynamic pricing to devalue their loyalty programs, we feared the worst when we learned Marriott would follow suit.
Marriott committed to keeping 97% of hotels within their previous category pricing bands through 2022. But now that we're well into 2023, what's happened to the value of Marriott points?
Over the last year, we've run three data collection phases for various hotels in the Marriott Bonvoy portfolio. To calculate how many cents per point members can redeem them for, we removed the taxes from the cash stays (since you don't have to pay taxes on award stays) and divided the cash rate by the points price. We've run tests for each night for the next five months.
While our sample size doesn't account for Marriott's massive portfolio, we can numerically back up our valuation of Marriott points at these properties.
This is what we've found.
You'll need more points for an award night
When we ran our second data collection in July 2022, we observed that Marriott stays required more points than in April 2022. At first glance, it's easy to assume an increase in award prices is synonymous with a devaluation.
But rather than a straight-up devaluation of Marriott points, the increase in award prices largely resulted from soaring hotel prices as leisure and business traffic rebounded from the depths of the COVID-19 pandemic. As cash rates increased, award rates followed. This trend has continued in our most recent data collection. Most importantly, our average cents-per-point redemption data remained similar across the three samples.
With award rates increasing with cash prices, former Category 8 Marriott properties routinely price over 100,000 points per night. Finding rooms for under 120,000 points per night at The St. Regis New York during peak fall travel dates is difficult.
Assuming this trend holds, we can expect Marriott award nights to rise if cash rates continue to increase.
Related: Award program devaluations are hitting premium and luxury redemptions the hardest — here's how
Marriott points haven't been devalued
While some properties have been disproportionately appreciated or devalued by dynamic pricing, as a whole, the value of Marriott points remains unchanged.
Here's a look at the value of Marriott points for five months, based on data from 17 hotels. The data is shown in terms of cents per point:
| April 2022 | July 2022 | February 2023 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| JW Marriott Scottsdale Camelback Inn Resort & Spa | 1.08 | 1.26 | 1.09 |
| The West Hollywood Edition | 0.58 | 0.59 | 0.76 |
| The Westin Denver International Airport | 0.66 | 0.61 | 0.70 |
| Moxy Miami South Beach | 0.61 | 0.96 | 1.03 |
| The St. Regis Maldives Vommuli Resort | 1.80 | 1.63 | 1.51 |
| SpringHill Suites by Marriott Springdale Zion National Park | 0.75 | 0.41 | 0.67 |
| Sheraton Grand Seattle | 0.48 | 0.47 | 0.52 |
| Residence Inn by Marriott Chicago Oak Brook | 1.24 | 0.84 | 0.96 |
| Le Meridien Dallas, The Stoneleigh | 0.97 | 0.94 | 0.91 |
| Waikiki Beach Marriott Resort & Spa | 0.78 | 0.60 | 0.72 |
| Aruba Marriott Resort & Stellaris Casino | 1.01 | 0.88 | 0.89 |
| W Amsterdam | 0.82 | 0.88 | 0.74 |
| The London Edition | 1.04 | 1.00 | 0.73 |
| Moxy Paris Bastille | 0.41 | 0.75 | 0.49 |
| The Westin Tokyo | 0.47 | 1.17 | 0.64 |
| The Westin Singapore | 1.17 | 1.17 | 1.73 |
| The Ritz-Carlton, Grand Cayman | 0.89 | 0.99 | 1.35 |
| Total average | 0.87 | 0.89 | 0.91 |
Related: The 26 best Marriott hotels in the world
Bottom line
The nature of dynamic pricing is volatile — your Marriott points might be worth x today and y in a few months. Moreover, their value will vary by property.
In the case of these properties, our cumulative average shows that Marriott hasn't devalued its points. Still, be prepared for sticker shock when you see the cash and points prices for your next tropical vacation.
Even though Marriott hasn't devalued its points overall yet, our data points to a lot of instability in Marriott redemptions. For example, Marriott points at The Westin Tokyo are worth 45% less in February 2023 tests than in our July 2022 tests. Meanwhile, at the Moxy Miami South Beach, they're 70% more valuable in our February 2023 tests than in our April 2022 tests.
The unpredictability and degree of these redemption changes leave me pessimistic about the long-term prospects of Marriott points.
Put differently, if you're holding on to a large sum of Marriott points, now is the time to redeem them.
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There’s a lot to love about the Amex Gold. It’s a fan favorite thanks to its fantastic bonus-earning rates at restaurants worldwide and at U.S. supermarkets. If you’re hitting the skies soon, you’ll also earn bonus Membership Rewards points on travel. Paired with up to $120 in Uber Cash annually (for U.S. Uber rides or Uber Eats orders, card must be added to Uber app and you can redeem with any Amex card), up to $120 in annual dining statement credits to be used with eligible partners, an up to $84 Dunkin’ credit each year at U.S. Dunkin Donuts and an up to $100 Resy credit annually, there’s no reason that foodies shouldn’t add the Amex Gold to their wallet. These benefits alone are worth more than $400, which offsets the $325 annual fee on the Amex Gold card. Enrollment is required for select benefits.Pros
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- Earn 4X Membership Rewards® points per dollar spent on purchases at restaurants worldwide, on up to $50,000 in purchases per calendar year, then 1X points for the rest of the year.
- Earn 4X Membership Rewards® points per dollar spent at US supermarkets, on up to $25,000 in purchases per calendar year, then 1X points for the rest of the year.
- Earn 3X Membership Rewards® points per dollar spent on flights booked directly with airlines or on AmexTravel.com.
- Earn 2X Membership Rewards® points per dollar spent on prepaid hotels and other eligible purchases booked on AmexTravel.com.
- Earn 1X Membership Rewards® point per dollar spent on all other eligible purchases.
- $120 Uber Cash on Gold: Add your Gold Card to your Uber account and get $10 in Uber Cash each month to use on orders and rides in the U.S. when you select an American Express Card for your transaction. That’s up to $120 Uber Cash annually. Plus, after using your Uber Cash, use your Card to earn 4X Membership Rewards® points for Uber Eats purchases made with restaurants or U.S. supermarkets. Point caps and terms apply.
- $84 Dunkin' Credit: With the $84 Dunkin' Credit, you can earn up to $7 in monthly statement credits after you enroll and pay with the American Express® Gold Card at U.S. Dunkin' locations. Enrollment is required to receive this benefit.
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- Annual Fee is $325.
- Terms Apply.
Rewards Rate
| 4X | Earn 4X Membership Rewards® points per dollar spent on purchases at restaurants worldwide, on up to $50,000 in purchases per calendar year, then 1X points for the rest of the year. |
| 4X | Earn 4X Membership Rewards® points per dollar spent at US supermarkets, on up to $25,000 in purchases per calendar year, then 1X points for the rest of the year. |
| 3X | Earn 3X Membership Rewards® points per dollar spent on flights booked directly with airlines or on AmexTravel.com. |
| 2X | Earn 2X Membership Rewards® points per dollar spent on prepaid hotels and other eligible purchases booked on AmexTravel.com. |
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Intro Offer
You may be eligible for as high as 100,000 Membership Rewards® Points after spending $6,000 in eligible purchases on your new Card in your first 6 months of Membership. Welcome offers vary and you may not be eligible for an offer.As High As 100,000 points. Find Out Your Offer.Annual Fee
$325Recommended Credit
Credit ranges are a variation of FICO® Score 8, one of many types of credit scores lenders may use when considering your credit card application.Excellent to Good
Why We Chose It
There’s a lot to love about the Amex Gold. It’s a fan favorite thanks to its fantastic bonus-earning rates at restaurants worldwide and at U.S. supermarkets. If you’re hitting the skies soon, you’ll also earn bonus Membership Rewards points on travel. Paired with up to $120 in Uber Cash annually (for U.S. Uber rides or Uber Eats orders, card must be added to Uber app and you can redeem with any Amex card), up to $120 in annual dining statement credits to be used with eligible partners, an up to $84 Dunkin’ credit each year at U.S. Dunkin Donuts and an up to $100 Resy credit annually, there’s no reason that foodies shouldn’t add the Amex Gold to their wallet. These benefits alone are worth more than $400, which offsets the $325 annual fee on the Amex Gold card. Enrollment is required for select benefits.Pros
- 4 points per dollar spent on dining at restaurants worldwide and U.S. supermarkets (on the first $50,000 in purchases per calendar year; then 1 point per dollar spent thereafter and $25,000 in purchases per calendar year; then 1 point per dollar spent thereafter, respectively)
- 3 points per dollar spent on flights booked directly with the airline or with amextravel.com
- Packed with credits foodies will enjoy
- Solid welcome bonus
Cons
- Not as useful for those living outside the U.S.
- Some may have trouble using Uber and other dining credits
- You may be eligible for as high as 100,000 Membership Rewards® Points after you spend $6,000 in eligible purchases on your new Card in your first 6 months of Card Membership. Welcome offers vary and you may not be eligible for an offer. Apply to know if you’re approved and find out your exact welcome offer amount – all with no credit score impact. If you’re approved and choose to accept the Card, your score may be impacted.
- Earn 4X Membership Rewards® points per dollar spent on purchases at restaurants worldwide, on up to $50,000 in purchases per calendar year, then 1X points for the rest of the year.
- Earn 4X Membership Rewards® points per dollar spent at US supermarkets, on up to $25,000 in purchases per calendar year, then 1X points for the rest of the year.
- Earn 3X Membership Rewards® points per dollar spent on flights booked directly with airlines or on AmexTravel.com.
- Earn 2X Membership Rewards® points per dollar spent on prepaid hotels and other eligible purchases booked on AmexTravel.com.
- Earn 1X Membership Rewards® point per dollar spent on all other eligible purchases.
- $120 Uber Cash on Gold: Add your Gold Card to your Uber account and get $10 in Uber Cash each month to use on orders and rides in the U.S. when you select an American Express Card for your transaction. That’s up to $120 Uber Cash annually. Plus, after using your Uber Cash, use your Card to earn 4X Membership Rewards® points for Uber Eats purchases made with restaurants or U.S. supermarkets. Point caps and terms apply.
- $84 Dunkin' Credit: With the $84 Dunkin' Credit, you can earn up to $7 in monthly statement credits after you enroll and pay with the American Express® Gold Card at U.S. Dunkin' locations. Enrollment is required to receive this benefit.
- $100 Resy Credit: Get up to $100 in statement credits each calendar year after you pay with the American Express® Gold Card to dine at U.S. Resy restaurants or make other eligible Resy purchases. That's up to $50 in statement credits semi-annually. Enrollment required.
- $120 Dining Credit: Satisfy your cravings, sweet or savory, with the $120 Dining Credit. Earn up to $10 in statement credits monthly when you pay with the American Express® Gold Card at Grubhub, The Cheesecake Factory, Goldbelly, Wine.com, and Five Guys. Enrollment required.
- Explore over 1,000 upscale hotels worldwide with The Hotel Collection and receive a $100 credit towards eligible charges* with every booking of two nights or more through AmexTravel.com. *Eligible charges vary by property.
- No Foreign Transaction Fees.
- Annual Fee is $325.
- Terms Apply.